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[Options] Bonds Ready to Move?

May 15, 2020

In March, the up move and subsequent retracement in Bonds was breathtaking and had the world's attention.

In April, Bonds spent most of the month "normalizing," at a newer, higher level.

Here in May, we're starting to see signs that another move to the upside is materializing. Here's a quote from JC in a recent email to All Star Chart subscribers:

If you're looking for an uptrend, it's in the bond market, NOT the stock market.

...the technical setup in Treasuries looks much better than it does for Stocks right now, over both long and short-term timeframes. TLT is trading just a few percent off all-time highs as price just broke above a confluence of resistance.

And here's the chart of relative strength between $TLT and $SPY that adds further evidence of a resumption of trend for TLT:

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[Options Premium] Gap and Go

May 12, 2020

In a recent blog post, JC highlighted some bullish stocks that he can simply no longer ignore. Regardless of whether or not we feel the upside may be close to exhausting itself in the broader markets, there are some setups that are screaming for attention.

I'm game. Let's play along.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[Options Premium] Let's Do it Again

May 8, 2020

For the past week or so, it's been a feeling to me that markets are setting up for some sideways chop with any directional bias being to the downside from here.

Meanwhile, options volatilities still remain elevated across the board (though well off the March highs) reflecting a lingering fear among market participants of another shoe to drop as the Coronavirus scare continues to effect human health and the global economy.

Against this backdrop, I'm looking for some delta-neutral credit spread strategies to employ. When doing so, I like to scan the most liquid ETFs and look for the ones exhibiting the highest premiums.

[Options] May Positions Review

May 1, 2020

As May gets under way, it’s time to review positions with May options that remain open (haven’t already hit profit targets or been stopped out).

Most trades I put on for All Star Options tend to have a minimum duration of 30 days (short premium plays) and often as long as 6-8 months (for long premium plays). As options approach expiration, greeks like theta and gamma start to become my enemy and whipsaw my P/L. Therefore, as options and spreads get into the expiration month, my best practice is to put each position on notice — it’s time to take action.

[Options] The Trend is Golden

April 29, 2020

Gold bugs sure have a lot to chirp about these days with theoretically unlimited money printing happening here in the US and around the world.

And this chart showing the performance of Gold relative to the S&P 500 shows a definitive upward trend in favor of Gold outperformance.

The million dollar question is, is this gold outperformance waning here? Or will the trend reassert itself soon?

All Star Options

[Options Premium] A Counterintuitive Short

April 27, 2020

It would seem that the "new" economy we live in -- one where we order everything online for fear of walking into stores -- would benefit the companies that provide the infrastructure and transportation to make that happen. Fundamentally, that makes sense. But we're chart readers here, and the charts are telling us something different.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Selling the Big Cat

April 24, 2020

The guys at ASC are out with a piece this week highlighting the weakness under the hood in some of the biggest sectors in the US Stock Market. Read it here.

One of the poster children for weakness we want to get short ahead of another possible leg down is setting up right now.