The bounce in US stocks continues off the Christmas Eve low, but it is showing signs of short-term exhaustion. Does this mean we go right back to lows? Not necessarily. I'm in the camp that some sideways chop would be constructive for the markets overall. As such, I'm in the mode of looking for smart delta neutral trading plans.
The debate seems to be raging between Bulls and Bears as to what's happening right now. The Bulls are declaring THE bottom is in and we're going up from here. The Bears are smugly observing what they think is just another dead cat bounce on our way to lower prices. Who's right?
What if they are both wrong?
Ms. Market loves to frustrate the largest amount of participants she can, as often as she can. And it seems to me the best way to frustrate the most people right now would be for U.S. stocks to tighten up and grind sideways for a little while. With that in mind, we have a nice ETF candidate to sell some delta neutral premium in while the next market direction sorts itself out.
We're headed back to our friendly neighborhood bank teller at JP Morgan Chase. She seems to like handing us cash. Twice she has been quite generous to us and the post-Christmas bounce in shares of $JPM gives us extra interest in coming back for a third helping.
Just as the final week of the year -- the days between Christmas and New Year's Day -- are generally to be avoided by anyone looking to put new options trades on, so too are the first couple trading days of any new year. Especially this one. It was highly unlikely you were going to make your year by trading during the holidays, and similarly, there's no reason to believe that any trades you nail on the first trading days of 2019 will be memorable this time next year.
As I type this at 12:45am ET, overnight S&P Futures have already traded as high as +34 and as low as -25 from Monday's close. And I expect further indecisiveness to be pervasive during the first two full trading days in 2019. Sure, the nimblest of day traders likely will have a lot of action this week to make it worth their while, but those of us looking to put on options spreads with several weeks or months until expiration will best be served letting some of the nuttiness of the first 48 hours shake out. As such, we'll be sitting on our hands until the end of the week, waiting until Friday to put on our first new position of 2019 (stay tuned!).
Happy New Year everyone! We're happy you're here. 2018 was a great first year for All Star Options. We pulled some profits out the market in both directions, we had some fun, and its been an incredibly rewarding challenge for me personally to share my experience with all of you and teach you some of the tricks of the trade I've learned in my 20 years tackling the markets.
We always welcome questions from the community about existing trades, questions about position management, and questions about our insight into various scenarios and trade ideas. And as such, I thought I'd take some time today, as we head into the new year, to lay out the way we think All Star Options subscribers can get the most out of their experience here and address some common requests we receive.
U.S. Stock Markets will only be open for a half day tomorrow Monday December 24th for Christmas Eve and closed on Christmas Day. And the following week will follow a similar pattern, being completely closed on Tuesday, January 1.
And the muck in between is no-man's land, especially given the market we're current in as best described by our pal Howard Lindzon: "This is one shitty market."
Unless you've got positions in distress that need defending in this sloppy, bearish tape, it's best to sit on the sidelines and wait until Wall Street gets back to work for real after New Year's Day. As such, we will not be adding any new positions to the All Star Options portfolio this week.
Bonds funds did a good job of getting everyone on the boat leaning one way, only to reverse and slam them in the other direction. The whole world seems to think interest rates have no where to go but up. However, those of us who follow the price of bonds know that reality has been sending us a different message.
The recent failed breakdown in $TLT (the 20-year bonds ETF) is a perfect example
Coming down the homestretch of 2018 and Mother Market sure is making it interesting. Will a "Santa Claus" rally save global stocks? Or is the Grinch quietly whispering in her ear?
Speaking of the Grinch and classic holiday movies, my family's Netflix consumption has been on the rise this holiday season. But as we know, the stock market is a forward looking mechanism and the outlook as foretold by prices is suggesting that softness is ahead for $NFLX stock.
This being the holiday season and all, you'd be forgiven if you didn't want to put on any new risk heading into the New Year. But for those of us still standing in the ring ready to do battle, $NFLX is streaming a tasty short play opportunity.
From where I sit, the correction in banks is a long way from being resolved, and one of the biggest names in the biz appears to be teetering on the edge of a much more significant drop than already experienced. It's now down for the year and significantly below both 50- and 200-day moving averages.
So far in the early stages of this market correction (dare I say Bear Market? Too Soon?), I've been aggressively deploying Bear Call Spreads to attack bearish trading opportunities.
Bear Call Spreads are a version of a vertical spread that consist of a short call at or slightly out-of-the-money and a long call further out-of-the-money. The profit profile of bear call spreads typically maps out like this:
I'm not going to sugar coat it. There are numerous stocks and sectors that are hanging on the precipice that look like a small push could send their shares tumbling into a deep abyss. The Regional Banking Sector is one of these sectors. A quick scan across the landscape reveals a tornado of broken charts. And as one would expect, volatility is elevated across the board here and offers great edge to net options sellers.