From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

ETH Kicks Off Crypto Rally

It was a busy weekend for cryptocurrencies, and Ethereum, in particular. The world’s second-largest crypto just resolved higher from a bearish continuation pattern right at a key polarity zone. 

When patterns fail, it’s always great information. In this case, a downside resolution in the direction of the underlying trend was the higher probability outcome, but it didn't happen that way. Instead, buyers took control and forced an upside resolution. Another thing that makes this price action stand out is where it took place. Ethereum just dug in and reversed after a brief shakeout beneath the 2017 highs. As long as we're back above the prior-cycle peak of 1400, the bias is higher.

Key Takeaway:

• Stocks celebrating small wins.
• For evidence to improve we need to see sustained strength.
• Fed confronted with deteriorating economy while still waging inflation fight.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 index is 20% off its early 2022 high, but remains nearly 14% above its pre-COVID peak. The median stock in the index, however, is now trading just below its pre-COVID high. The last several years have been an experience of tremendous volatility with no upside progress for the median stock. The numbers are even more startling among mid-caps and small-caps. Both the mid-cap S&P 400 and small-cap S&P 600 are nearly 10% above their pre-COVID peaks, but the median mid-cap stock is 10% below its pre-COVID high and the median small-cap stock is 20% below its pre-COVID high. This brings us to commodities. The median commodity is 30% below its high, but remains 20% above its pre-COVID peak. Whether it’s stocks or commodities (or bonds for that matter) there is plenty of volatility in the current environment. The volatility in commodities is in the context of an underlying up-trend. With the median stock in the S&P 500 returning to its pre-COVID high (and the Value Line Geometric Index where it was in 2018), it’s been an unrewarding roller coaster ride for stocks. 

This is the video recording of the July 14, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

07/14/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I'm watching a butterfly emerge from a chrysalis.

Literally.

I’m not conjuring a metaphor. This is happening in real life… in a jar on my desk.

A few weeks back, I found some Black Swallowtail caterpillars in my dill patch. I collected several, provided a steady supply of fresh dill, and watched them grow big and plump.

Eventually, they attached themselves to a stick, shed their caterpillar skins and have spent the last couple of weeks undergoing an amazing metamorphosis inside their chrysalis.

Reorganization complete, they are now emerging anew.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Banking on Support

Banks, broker-dealers, and capital markets have all been underperforming despite the rising rate environment. The entire financial sector has been a disappointment since last year.

When it comes to banks, the Regional Banks ETF is an excellent indicator to measure risk appetite. When times are good, these stocks are participating. 

As you can see in the chart, price is currently holding above the AVWAPs from the 2018 highs and 2020 lows. This level represents a logical potential support zone.

Notice in the lower pane that momentum (as measured by the 14-period RSI) never reached oversold conditions during the current correction. Not many industry groups can say the same.

As long as this economically sensitive group remains above this confluence of support, it is a positive for the overall market.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The June employment report shows a labor market that remains on relatively firm footing. Nonfarm payrolls were up more than expected in the month, though this was partially offset by downward revisions to gains from previous months. Total employment rose at 3% annual rate in the second quarter, though adjusting for a downtick in average weekly hours, the aggregate hours worked index was up only 2% in the quarter. While continued growth in employment is good for workers, it is coming as output (as measured by GDP) is at best stalled and is more likely contracting. This is likely to put further upward pressure on unit labor costs and downward pressure on productivity. That translates to lower profit margins, which peaked in Q3 2021 and have fallen in each of the last two quarters. Slowing top line growth and contracting margins leave plenty of room for earnings estimates to be revised lower. That’s a fundamental headwind for stocks moving forward.