This is the video recording of the July 8th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets

07/08/21 2PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

You guys need to come see this...

That’s what an excited neighbor told us after randomly knocking on our front door earlier this week. 

We followed her out to our yard by the sidewalk to find a trio of scientists readying to catch and study a pair of Cooper's Hawks that have been nesting in a tree across the street. They constructed a trap with a net stretched between a couple of poles and a distress call playing over a loudspeaker.

First, the female swooped in, followed by the male. The hawks were quickly entangled in the net and the scientists began to band and measure them.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

• The Energy sector fell out of the top spot in our S&P 500 sector rankings last week, though on an equal-weight basis and at the mid-cap and small-cap level, Energy remains the relative strength leader. Our industry group heat map confirms this broad strength within the Energy sector.
• Communication Services and Technology are in the top two spots of our relative strength rankings. Financials and Real Estate round out the leadership group.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Base Metals Bury The Hatchet

Dr. Copper often steals the spotlight when it comes to base metals, and for good reason. It’s one of the most economically sensitive commodities. More importantly, it holds a special place in our collective psyche, as one of the major assets that investors turn to in order to gauge the state of the economy, and even investor risk appetite. With that said, the current correction in Copper has raised some concern, especially given the choppy market conditions.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 finished June at its highest level ever. For the first time since August 2020, however, this was a new monthly high that was not confirmed by the equal-weight version of the index. Moreover, it was the first time since Sep 2018 that the equal-weight version of the index was actually down (ever so slightly) for a month in which the S&P 500 made a new high. This is evidence of a market that has lost some of the harmonies that helped sustain strength in recent months.

This is the video recording of the July 1st Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche

07/01/21 2PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

A strange thought occurred to me as I was cracking eggs into a well-seasoned pan over the weekend: cast iron pans and technical analysis have a lot of similarities. 

This might sound a little crazy, but the idea is worth pursuing. Bear with me while I give it a shot...

Growing up, my family didn't often use cast iron pans. They had a reputation for being hard to use. On the rare occasions that I did use one, food would burn and stick to the pan. So I was stuck with inferior results and lots of cleanup. 

We preferred Teflon-coated cookware. Teflon benefitted from great advertising and the promise of progress. They seemed miraculous at first. But the coating would chip over time and bits of it ended up in the food. Still, the cast iron went unused.

But our problems with cast iron had nothing to do with the material. It was how we were using these pans that caused our issues. We didn't understand how we needed to season a cast iron pan with oil. Also, using too much soap on clean up destroys the finish you worked to build up. 

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• New highs are not expanding, but neither are new lows
• Housing costs fuel inflation but bonds are unconcerned
• Risk on/risk off in neutral but broker dealers threaten break down

As 2021 began, the strong trends that emerged in 2020 were intact. But as we get ready to make the turn to the second half, we find ourselves looking at a muddled mess of stalled out trends and conflicting signals. How these resolve will go a long way toward dictating the paths that the market and the economy take over the second half of the year. 

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

• The Energy sector reclaimed the top spot in the rankings this week, followed by Communications Services (down one spot from last week) and Real Estate (up one spot from last week). 
• Industrials and Materials have dropped out of the leadership group (which is based on rankings over a three-week span) over the past two weeks. Technology and Communication Services have joined Energy, Financials, and Real Estate in the leadership group.