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Going Back to Ancient Times

October 30, 2024

The market keeps rewarding investors for buying some of Wall Street's most hated stocks. 

We're getting buy signals from biotechnology and crypto stocks, which tends to happen in healthy market environments.

With this in mind, we're going back to the well and buying a biotech stock with nearly 1/3 of the float sold short and a double-digit days-to-cover ratio. 

The stock we're buying is named after what was once an important ancient trade center in modern-day Turkey.

Let's talk about how we're playing this short squeeze:

 

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Trick or Treat?

October 25, 2024

Each year, Americans buy over 600 million pounds of candy and eat over 1 pound each for Halloween.

It's a lot...

But are there opportunities to profit from Americans ritualistically eating way too much candy? You betcha!

Let's talk about it.

After a historic 190% run earlier this year, cocoa futures have formed a textbook consolidation pattern:

 

In addition, chocolate bears have failed to register an oversold reading as the bulls have maintained control during this consolidation phase.

We like owning cocoa futures above 6,900, with a target of 11,700 over the coming 2-4 months.

Sugar futures look poised to retest last year's high:

 

After rallying 20% in a single week last month, the sweet commodity has formed a sweet bullish continuation pattern. If and when this pattern is resolved, we want to own sugar futures in anticipation of a fresh leg higher.

In addition to the chart pattern, the bulls registered a 14-day RSI reading above 80 during the last leg higher, as they were in...

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International Hall of Famers (10-25-2024)

October 25, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from...

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A Warning From The Bond Market

October 23, 2024

Long bonds are sending a message loud and clear these days, and I’m all ears.

When the Fed started cutting rates last month, long-term bonds reversed course lower. They are making fresh 3-month lows this week.

This might seem surprising, but it's not as uncommon as you'd think.

We saw a similar situation in November 2018, when the Fed raised rates, but the bond market didn't buy it, with the TLT rallying for two years.

Now, the Fed is cutting rates, and long bonds are calling their bluff again. This time, by reversing trend lower.

You can see what I mean in the following chart:

 

If bond prices continue to decline, it likely signals an expectation of rising inflation or stronger economic growth. 

Personally, I’m betting on inflation increasing.

If this is the case, the Fed rate...

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2 to 100 Club (10-22-2024)

October 22, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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The Short Report (10-22-2024)

October 22, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

...
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The Minor Leaguers (10-21-2024)

October 21, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus...

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Uranium Is on Fire

October 18, 2024

Uranium stocks have been screaming higher and show no signs of slowing down.

As the AI Revolution demands more and more power, big technology companies are turning to nuclear energy.

The market is sending a very clear message... we (as investors) need to increase our exposure to uranium stocks.

Check out the recent performance from uranium stocks:

 

Each bubble's location is determined by its 10-day change on the x-axis, the trailing 3-month return on the y-axis, and the 14-day RSI is the size.

LEU, OKLO, and SMR are the stocks that stand out the most amongst their peers. Each of these 3 leaders is involved with nuclear energy for the AI boom.

The VanEck Uranium Energy ETF $NLR is decisively resolving a multi-decade base:

 

This fund holds large positions in the largest uranium stocks like Constellation Energy $CEG, Cameco $CCJ, and BWX Technologies $BWXT.

The breakout to new multi-decade highs is happening as breadth in the industry is expanding.

The GlobalX Uranium ETF $URA has a large Cameco...

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This Breakout Is Secured

October 16, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We all know how dreadful it can be to get through airport security.

Clear Secure is trying to be the remedy by using biometric data to provide identity verification and expedite security at airports and other venues.

Last quarter, the stock rallied over 20% following its earnings report and has nearly doubled since.

Despite the stock's strong performance and highest price since 2021, the bears are still betting against it. The amount of shares held short is near its highest level in history.

Let's talk about how we're playing it:

 

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2 to 100 Club (10-16-2024)

October 16, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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We're Buying This Bitcoin Miner

October 14, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

What's better than a Bitcoin miner short squeeze?

Some of our best trades have come from these stocks as they can make dramatic moves in both directions.

Our crypto desk recently wrote "it appears this seven month bear market is reaching its concluding stages." 

With that in mind, what're we buying?

We're buying a leader in the crypto mining industry with a double-digit short interest and warrants to juice our returns even more.

Let's talk about it:
 

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Materials Stocks Are Making New Highs

October 11, 2024

It has been two-years since the S&P 500 bottomed in October 2022 and stocks began a new bull market. 

During this time, many sectors and industry groups have enjoyed tremendous uptrends while materials stocks have gone sideways.

But materials stocks are starting to look interesting...

The SPDR Materials Sector ETF $XLB is making new all-time highs:

 

As you can see, the prior cycle high coincides with a major Fibonacci extension level going back to the Great Financial Crisis, which adds to the significance of this breakout.

This market-capitalization weighted fund has a large exposure to Linde $LIN amongst several other bellwether materials stocks.

We want to be long XLB if it's above 93, with a target of 139.

The Materials Sector holds a lot of the same stocks as the S&P Chemicals Index:

 

The S&P Chemicals Index is consolidating below a major Fibonacci extension level going back to the Great Financial Crisis and we're betting it will breakout to new all-time highs like XLB.

If CEX is above 985, the path of least resistance is higher toward 1,500.

Representing over 17% of the Materials Sector...