You can data-mine all you want. Tell me the world is ending, the U.S. President is crazy, nuclear war is around the corner, the N.Y. Jets don't have a quarterback.....Whatever it is that you're using to justify your heavy cash positions or short...
The Dow Jones Transportation Average has been one of the best leading indicators for the direction of markets over the past few years. This index peaked in late 2014, six months before the S&P500 put in its top. The Transportation Average also...
Every market environment is different. It's changing every day. What might give us insight into what's happening during one period of time in the market doesn't guarantee that it will help in the future, or ever again for that matter. Back in 2008-...
You guys know how much I like my intermarket analysis. It's a tool that we have as market participants that simply cannot be ignored. If you're putting together a portfolio for a client, managing your own account or just looking for major trends,...
Chemical stocks are breaking out to all-time highs. It's not just one or two of them either, they are doing this collectively as a unit. When we see broad-based participation out of a group, it's not something we want to ignore. Today I want to smooth...
I've been out of town for the past week clearing my head and taking a break from markets. This is one of the most important parts of my entire process. I explained why in this post. While...
This week was our monthly conference call for Premium Members. We discussed a lot of things, mostly surrounding the fact that stocks are in uptrends all over the...
The debate that will always persist is the Stocks vs Gold question. Do we own gold? Do we own stocks? Do we own both? What percentage of our portfolio should be in precious metals? Do we own the physical or the ETF? Whether Gold is at new highs or new...
The Bond Market is a very misunderstood place. Usually all we hear are complaints. Fed this, Yellen that, something about her books being beige. I don't know. I can't keep up anymore. To me the Bond Market is place to find information that we can't...
This concept of new 52-week highs can be somewhat confusing. I get it. How does it work? If we make new highs and the list of new highs doesn't confirm, do we short everything? How do we know if and when the internals of the market have confirmed...
It's the end of the month so you know what that means: Brand new freshly completed monthly candlesticks for us to review. While I normally use weekly charts to get structural perspective on markets and then daily charts for tactical purposes, the...
This is a global market environment. The S&P500 goes up and down based on the collective money flow from investors all over the world, not just within the borders of the United States. There are some people still fighting the civil war who simply...
My weekly run through the S&P500 components is one of my favorite parts of the work week. I put on some music and go through all 1000+ charts. Remember we use the weekly charts to get structural perspective and then the daily timeframes to define ...
We live in a world of if/then statements. That's just the way it is. I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, or next month or next year. But that's okay because no one else does either. That whole lie about "uncertainty" is just that: a lie....
Most of you who know me already know that I incorporate a top/down, weight-of-the-evidence approach. It's not just 1 chart or 1 indicator that says to be long or short the stock market. It doesn't work that way. For me, I put in the work, weigh ALL of...
Yesterday I kept a Diary throughout my entire process of reviewing the components of the S&P500. Many of you have written back with such nice things about that. I'm glad...
We're in the market to make money. It should not matter whether that money is made in Energy stocks, Technology, U.S. Equities, European or Chinese. The point is to find opportunities as they come, wherever they come from. I think as we progress into...
One of the most important tools we have as technicians is the ability to measure momentum. Remember, buy side fund managers are obsessed with looking for stocks and assets showing momentum. They hate sitting in things that aren't doing anything....
It's hard to ignore certain market moves that tend to be very rare. Bullish outside days that engulf the prior period are one of those. I think this is exactly what we saw this week in the AMEX Arline Index and it is something we want to respect. This...
For me it's not just about buying a group of stocks, but about buying the strongest members of that group. I am a firm believer that by erring on the long side of relative strength or erring on the short side of relative weakness, the odds of a...
As I mentioned recently, I've been working with some new technology and it's allowing me to easily share analysis in a much more detailed way from a sub-sector perspective. In the first top/down review last week we looked at the...
I love technical analysis. I really do. There's no question that finding a nice chart brings a great amount of joy to my life. Today I want to share with you what I think is one of the most important developments to occur over the past couple of...
For someone who uses Dow Theory every single day, it's not something that I write about much. I may indirectly reference certain tenets all the time, but rarely do I write specifically about the 130 year old Dow Theory. I think I pretty much laid it...