The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.
The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
While the weight of the evidence still remains in the bullish camp, bears seem to add to their list of talking points with every passing week of late. We believe the highest probability outcome over the coming weeks to months is for risk assets to remain in a mixed and messy environment. Once we begin to see evidence that indicates the current "chop fest" is nearing an end - which could simply come in the form of a reduction in the number of...
This is one of our favorite bottoms-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity -- either bullish or bearish... but NOT both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolateonlythose options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind... and they're doing so for one reason only: Because they think the stock is about to...
We've already had some great trades come out of this Smallcap-focused column since we launched it late last year and began rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."
To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. After applying price and liquidity filters, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.
The goal is to catch the strongest names while they're small and still have serious upside potential. If any of these stocks ever climb the ranks to the big leagues, the returns could be huge. We're looking at 5-10x moves just to break into large-cap land!
And what better time than now to launch a small-cap-focused column? We've...
In last week's Mystery Post, we discussed this chartand posed the question as to whether or not it was about to finally break out above those prior highs.
With price coiling in a bullish flag-like continuation pattern, yet showing waning momentum - responses we're mixed with many wanting to wait for more information.
The chart was a long-term look at the Global Auto ETF $CARZ. And as far as the impending breakout is concerned, it looks like we got our answer this week...
Here's the same weekly bar chart. Looks a bit different now, doesn't it?
CARZ kicked off the week with a breakaway gap as it sliced through our primary objective and recent highs around 60.
Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Macro Universe:
Our Macro Universe continued its strength this week as over 77% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.50%.
We held our June Monthly Strategy Session this past Thursday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a "big-picture" point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let's dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month's call.
For me, it's not just about one indicator or one chart.
It's a weight of the evidence game.
Since March, the bet has been Messy For Longer. We've expected a choppy environment. That's what the weight-of-the-evidence and history suggested.
But now what? Are these consolidations going to resolve lower? Or Higher? Or just stay messy for even longer?
That's what makes this all so great. I don't know. And neither do you. No one does.
It's a beautiful thing.
So as I weigh the evidence to decide rollover or breakout, I come to a series of divergences that put this stock market in quite the predicament.
With S&Ps and major indexes hovering near all-time highs, we're just not seeing it from the components themselves. Here's the Russell3000, for instance, seeing fewer and fewer new highs:
With the Dow Jones Transportation Average hitting our upside targets last month, it's become a wait and see game.
Are consolidations resolving higher, like they were before? Or are they resolving lower?
Based on the overwhelming amount of evidence, the bet we want to make as that Transports resolve lower, and join some of the other areas that have already been under pressure for months, like Tech and Small-caps.
When going through the components of this index, there were 6 names in particular that presented the best risk vs reward opportunities on the short side.
The first one Southwest Airlines. This looks like a top to me. How I learned it was to buy the smiley faces and sell the frowny faces.
If we're below 59, we want to be short $LUV with a target near 48.50, which represents all that former resistance last year.