From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
The same strong rotational currents that have been in place in the US since last summer have finally begun to spill over to International stocks... but, not all of them.
For the first time in about a decade, evidence suggests that stock markets around the world have finally built a strong foundation relative to their US counterparts, and might just be ready for a sustained period of outperformance.
How big the move will be and how long it will last are always some of the most difficult variables to predict. We can merely position ourselves accordingly based on the information we do have, and then be keenly aware of new data points as they come in, and constantly re-evaluate and adjust our outlook as appropriate.
Welcomeback to our “latest Under The Hood” column for the week ended March 19, 2021. As a reminder, this column will be published bi-weekly moving forward, and rotated on-and-off with our new Minor Leaguers column.
In this column, we analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
What's the FIRST question investors should ask themselves and have a clear and concrete answer to before putting money in the market?
It is literally step one. The cornerstone of any strategy or trading plan...
What is my objective?
Every investor should examine this thoughtfully and keep it top of mind to ensure that their investment decisions are aligned with their investmentgoals.
Usually, the answer is pretty simple and comes down to maximizing returns, or more importantly minimizing losses, in a way that fits within each individual's unique preferences.
But as we'll explore in this post, this isn't always the case, and sometimes it can be a bit nuanced - as is the case with Environmental, Social, and Governance investment strategies.
So as an exercise let's put ourselves in the shoes of ESG investors and ask a few simple questions...
The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.
The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.
Two things we've been pointing to this week are the potential failed breakouts in Small-caps and Micro-cap stocks, which would confirm a series of bearish momentum divergences. And also the relative strength out of Consumer Staples throughout March, which is something we haven't seen in a long long time....
Remember, Consumer Staples outperforming is consistent with a market environment where stocks are under pressure.
Here's that chart showing Staples potentially confirming a rare "Diamond" reversal pattern relative to the S&P500:
One thing we want to watch out for is this recent relative strength in Consumer Staples. I don't think it's necessarily time to sound the alarm just yet, but continued relative strength out of this group is not consistent with higher stock prices.
Now, a couple of weeks doesn't make a trend. But it is curious to see this one not confirming the new lows that the rest of them are putting in:
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
The market continues to fire on all cylinders right now. Last week's gains were nothing but a continuation of the same resiliency and momentum we've come to expect from risk assets over the last year.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
One lesson you learn pretty quickly as a market analyst is that not all assets are created equal.
Each and every financial instrument carries its own unique bundle of nuances... from a stocks' beta or systematic volatility as well as its residual risk, to the fee structure and rebalancing methodology of an exchange-traded fund or note, to the settlement and delivery procedures governing futures contracts.
All of these things impact the behavior and performance of these various markets.
Today, we're going to focus specifically on the inner workings of International Country ETFs and the way they are impacted by the currency component inherent in these vehicles.
As most of you know, we're big on our scans here at All Star Charts. And believe it or not, selloffs are actually some of the best times to scan for strength.
While our parameters will vary based on the market backdrop, there are two main things we almost alwaysfocus on when scanning for strong stocks in anyenvironment.
First and foremost, we're always looking for leadership. As many of you know, I'm a big advocate of fishing in the right places. Whether it's secret spots on the gulf stream or areas of markets showing strength, it's the same strategy... We want to position ourselves for the best catch.
We also want to limit our risk in case we're wrong. For us, this is as simple as betting only on those setups with clearly defined risk/rewards that are skewed heavily in our favor.
In other words, if we're right, we book hefty profits. On the other hand, if we're wrong, we'll know quickly and be out with minimal damage, and onto the next opportunity.