From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
A few weeks ago, we pointed out widening crack spreads and what they meant for oil refining stocks. You can read more here, as we explain how wider crack spreads support higher prices for this particular area of the market.
Three weeks later, crack spreads have widened to their highest level in more than a decade.
This post is not about crack spreads, though. It’s about energy and how everything in the space is working these days.
Bullish rotation continues to be the theme for energy.
This week, gasoline was the standout, booking a 10% gain and breaking out of a massive base to new all-time highs.
Let’s take a look at the breakout in gasoline futures and discuss what it means for crude oil.
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Here’s this week’s list:
And here’s how we arrived at it:
We filtered out any stocks that are below their May 10, 2021, high, which is when new 52-week highs peaked for...
The largest insider transaction on today's list comes to us in a Form 4 filing by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A.
Buffett continues to grow his position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY. He just revealed an additional purchase that brings his total ownership to 226 million shares, representing a 12.15% interest.
Stocks are having a tough time these past few weeks. Selling pressure is not just accelerating; it’s spreading.
Even the leaders aren’t providing shelter from this latest storm…
A lot of the commodity stocks we’ve been focusing on for long exposure in recent months are experiencing significant volatility and are now back below our risk levels.
We want to be patient and wait for the dust to settle for most of these trades.
While this is the case for the majority of stocks right now, there are always pockets of strength.
The most obvious among them right now is energy. The resilience from energy continues to impress us.
Today, we’re going to outline long ideas in a popular exploration & production name as well as an international bank stock.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
While most uptrends have come under pressure in 2022, the US dollar has remained as strong as any.
This dollar strength, particularly at the index level, is nothing new. We've been discussing it.
It's been taking place all year, driven by the major pairs such as the euro, the yen, and the pound.
However, something new is the burgeoning strength beneath the surface, even outside of the big developed market currencies. We've been seeing dollar internals improve drastically in recent weeks.
And now we're seeing momentum accelerate for the US Dollar Index $DXY. Today, DXY is on track for its largest single-day gain since the pandemic crash more than two years ago.
All of the evidence suggests this dollar strength is the real deal.
Let's talk about what it means and how we want to position for it.
Here's the US Dollar Index ripping to its highest level in almost 20 years:
The US Dollar Index $DXY is ripping to its highest level in 20 years today.
We just covered this dollar strength and what it means in our Currency Report, which you can read here.
We talk about the implications of a stronger dollar on risk assets, particularly stocks.
While this rally in the dollar is definitely not a good thing for stocks in the US or abroad, we see these intermarket relationships dislocate all the time.
Could stocks and the dollar rally higher together? Sure! Commodities and the dollar have already been doing this for several quarters now...
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
Welcome to the Short Report. We'll publish this column...
We held our May Monthly Strategy Session on Tuesday. ASC Premium Members can click here to access the recording and the chartbook.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.