From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley    

As we approach year-end, we're diving into the individual commodity groups to gauge the status of the primary trends and to get a better idea of where we’re likely headed in 2022. 

Last week, we highlighted precious metals -- by far the worst performers of 2021 with a -10.59% return thus far. We think there's a good chance they'll turn things around next year and start participating.

Today, we’re going to review the other end of the spectrum in terms of performance -- energy! 

While base metals and ags have posted strong gains over the trailing 12-months -- 25.96% and 28.22% respectively -- energy has been the real leader, quietly printing a 46.33% gain despite recent selling pressure.

After crude oil collapsed below zero last year, the entire group had its work cut out. But they’ve covered an amazing amount of ground in a short period of time, and we think they have further to go.

Let’s take a look at what’s happening in this leadership group and how we want to position ourselves as we...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 50 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market-cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more -- but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the 50 largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Our focus has been on US Treasury yields in recent months – and for good reason. 

The 30-year yield recently undercut its summer lows, and the 10-year yield briefly lost the critical 1.40 level. Both have since recovered. But these crucial rates remain stuck in the same messy ranges that have defined most of 2021. 

Given the lack of decisive action in domestic yields, we think it's a good time to check in on the overseas bond markets in hopes of gleaning some insight into the potential direction of yields outside the US.

In today’s post, we’re going to switch things up and take a look at the 10-year yields from other major developed countries.

Let’s start with the European financial behemoth, Germany:Like much of the developed world, Germany’s 10-year yield has been in the process of carving out a bottom for the past two years.

Though the current rate may...

There hasn't been much to cover as far as new developments in the cryptocurrency market are concerned.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and friends have been consolidating and correcting for the better part of two months now. We experienced some volatility in early December, but the damage was quickly repaired. Outside of this, things have been quiet. It's really just been a slow grind lower or sideways for most cryptos since November.

We continue to believe this is a messy market, and patience is the best course of action for a large majority of coins.

Let's recap some of the things we're looking for to signal the recent corrective action has passed. Then we'll check in on some of the leaders as we want to focus on these pockets of strength as they should continue to outperform when the current selling pressure subsides.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Major world currencies continue to struggle against the US dollar.

Both the euro and British pound have been coiling near 52-week lows against the dollar. We’re also seeing weakness spread among commodity-centric currencies, as the Canadian dollar hit new 52-week lows this week, and the Australian dollar accomplished the same earlier in the month. As for the safe-haven Japanese yen, USD/JPY hit its highest level since 2017 at the end of November. 

The bottom line is that we continue to see broad strength from the greenback.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index $DXY continues to consolidate within a tight continuation pattern.

As we wait for a resolution either higher or lower, we can look to these individual forex pairs for an indication of which direction we’re likely headed.

Let’s revisit the potential failed breakdown from the Australian dollar earlier in the month and the recent action in the...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We’ve already had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

We recently decided to expand our universe to include some mid-caps…

For about a year now, we’ve focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B. That was fun, but it’s time we branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

The way we’re doing this is simple…

To make the cut for our new Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B. And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component–it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Are The Worst Stocks Bottoming?

One thing we’re looking for to signal that the selling pressure has passed is the weakest areas carving out bottoms. In recent sessions, we’ve actually seen resilience and some relative strength from US growth stocks. Many of 2020s top-performers have endured significant losses already this year, and the ARK Innovation ETF is a great barometer for what’s taken place. When we look at a weekly chart, there is a hammer candle slightly beneath the May lows. If we see some upside follow-through, this could result in a failed downside move and fast move in the opposite direction. We’re also seeing signs of selling pressure waning on the daily chart as buyers continue to step in during the intraday session and send prices higher. This is illustrated by a handful of long lower wicks at the recent lows, which is evidence of strong demand at current levels. We think things are setting up for...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was in the red as 74% of our list closed lower with a median return of -0.98%.
• The Volatility index $VIX was a massive winner again, closing out the week with more than a 15% gain.
• The biggest loser was US 10-Year Yield $TNX, with a weekly loss of -5.84%
• There was a 6% drop in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 45%.
• 17% of our sector...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

We study a wide variety of sentiment data as we incorporate many different indicators into our day-to-day analysis.

In its simplest form, sentiment tells us how certain market participants or investors feel about the market.

Are investors feeling bullish and increasing their exposure to risk?

Or, are investors feeling fearful and positioning defensively?

More often than not, these are contrarian indicators that work best when at extremes.

One of our favorite sets of sentiment data comes from a weekly report published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It is called the Commitment Of Traders, or COT report, and it simply outlines how various participants are positioned in futures markets.

We get lots of questions regarding how we analyze the COT report, so let’s talk about two of the main ways we find value in this information.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Outside of the large-cap averages in the US, most stocks have been stuck in sideways trends for much of 2021. We’ve seen breakouts fail in both directions over the past two months, as sloppy price action continues to govern the broader market.

As we discussed in our last intermarket post, this range-bound action has not just been the case for stocks on an absolute basis. We’re seeing the same thing from commodities, cryptocurrencies, and even our risk-appetite ratios. Risk assets have simply been a mess.

Let's take a look at one of our favorite risk-appetite ratios, as there's been an important development in the discretionary versus staples relationship. 

Here is large-cap consumer discretionary $XLY versus consumer staples $XLP: 

Notice how this ratio was rallying aggressively coming into 2021. Now think back to what stocks and other risk assets were doing during this time. Everything was working, right?

Consumer discretionary...