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From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US Treasury futures are breaking out.

The 30-, 10-, and 5-year contracts are trading above our risk levels. And the bond ETFs we covered a couple of weeks ago are also flashing buy signals.

The bond market is sending a well-advertised message to all investors…

It’s time to buy bonds.

Let's review one of the most liquid treasury ETFs, $TLT.

Zooming out on the weekly chart of the Treasury bond ETF TLT… 

We have a potential failed breakdown below the former 2014 lows, followed by a tight, multi-month consolidation.

A clear break above 110 and the former 2018 lows turns our view higher toward 135. 

On the other hand, a resolution below 100 carries downside risks back to the 2011 lows at approximately 88.

Based on the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is dropping – and our bearish USD trade ideas are beginning to trigger.

While I tend to stick to major developed-market (DM) currencies for placing trades, I still monitor the less liquid forex pairs for information. 

I want to see DM currency strength spill over into emerging-market (EM) currencies, confirming the broadening US dollar weakness. 

As always, I strive to break it down to one level, one chart, whenever possible. 

This next chart does the job…

Here’s the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Fund ETF $CEW:

CEW is carving out a possible reversal pattern below a polarity zone, coinciding with a series of key pivot highs and lows from 2021 and 2022. 

Notice momentum has improved as price churns below resistance. This supports a potential upside resolution.

My view...

This is the video recording of our April 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

Gold finished the month within ten dollars of a new all-time high on a monthly closing basis.

It's an impressive feat by any standards, but even more so considering March is the weakest month of the year from a seasonal perspective.

With Gold futures bucking seasonal weakness and Silver futures and mining stocks bid, investors are sending a clear message to gold bugs everywhere...

It's time to party!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I thought March was supposed to be a seasonally weak period for gold.

I guess I was wrong.

Instead of rolling over, gold almost posted double-digit returns last month, while the higher beta plays (silver futures and mining stocks) soared.

As you might expect, many of the bullish trade ideas I laid out last month are working.

And, today, I have two new setups for you to check out…

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended March 31, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Buying opportunities abound across commodities.

It’s easy to miss this phenomenon if you’re solely focused on the major indexes, as the CRB Index and the Bloomberg Commodity Index $BCOM broke down earlier this month. 

Don’t let those charts mislead you. Plenty of sweet setups present themselves.

And the next chart is by far my favorite…

Cocoa!

Check out the five-year base in cocoa futures:

Cocoa is taking the shape of a potential ascending triangle. This pattern carries a bullish bias as buyers step in, creating a series of higher lows. 

Momentum is another bullish data point on the chart. Notice the 14-week RSI has held within a bullish regime since the initial thrust higher in early 2018. 

Cocoa futures provide a textbook...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Bonds are taking a breather as stocks recover.

Bond market volatility is cooling off as the banking collapses and the March Fed meeting fade from the front page. 

And it appears the volatility has left big unresolved bases in US Treasuries in its wake…

Let’s dive in!

Check out the US 30-year T-Bond futures carving out a multi-month reversal pattern:

If and when it breaks above 132’18, I’m long with an upside objective of 143’00. Simple!

It’s the most attractive setup due to the bullish momentum regime and clean breakout level – two attributes short-duration bonds lack.

Why? 

Volatility increases further down the curve as the bond market anticipates the Fed’s next move. 

Check out the 10-year T-Note futures:

...