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The Hall of Famers (01-13-2023)

January 13, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 

Then...

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The Bellwethers Are Back!

January 13, 2023

As a responsible investor, I refuse to ignore strength. That includes stocks making fresh highs. 

Despite what you may have heard from the major cable networks, many stocks aren’t going down. In fact, many fit our definition of "strength."

Out of all the fresh highs coming in, these three bellwethers take the cake…

Freeport-McMoRan

We look at Freeport-McMoRan $FCX as a proxy for Dr. Copper. Both are economic barometers, and both are posting new multi-month highs:

This is a bullish development for global risk assets, including commodities and their related stocks.

As long as FCX trades above 40, our outlook is higher toward 62, with a target of 97 over longer timeframes.  

Newmont Corp.

Here’s the gold mining behemoth, Newmont Corp. $NEM, carving out a decade-long base:

...

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Credit Spreads Contract

January 12, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley

If bond markets aren’t stressing, why should we be?

They’re the largest markets in the world. That’s why we constantly monitor credit spreads for signs of structural weakness and elevated risk.

But, as of now, we’re not seeing the slightest hint of impending catastrophe.

Despite the doom-and-gloom headlines popping up in your inbox and financial media talking heads spinning an imminent recession…

Credit spreads around the world are sending a clear message: "Relax."

Check out the overlay chart of option-adjusted high-yield credit spreads:

They’re all contracting to levels from last summer. Even the riskiest CCC-rated spread is reverting lower.

This is the exact opposite of what we would expect if the world was coming to an end and investors were running for the exits.

Instead, market participants are reaching...

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The Short Report (01-11-2023)

January 11, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as The Hall of Famers, The Minor Leaguers, and The 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a regular basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

...

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The Euro Has the Answer

January 11, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Is the dollar going to finally bounce?

As I pointed out last week, if there was ever a place or time – it's’ now! But that doesn’t mean it’ll happen…. 

One thing is certain: The markets don’t care what I think. This includes the US dollar.

But when I look at a chart of the EUR/USD, the largest component of the US Dollar Index $DXY, it’s running into a logical level of resistance.

How the euro reacts to current levels will set the tone for the dollar in the coming weeks and months.

Check out the daily chart of the EUR/USD:

First, let’s break down momentum in the lower pane.

The 14-day RSI has broken out of a bearish momentum regime, printing a bullish overbought reading last month. This indicates momentum has shifted in...

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Under the Hood (01-09-2023)

January 10, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended January 6, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply...

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Follow the Flow (01-09-2023)

January 9, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

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Gold Rush: Miners Join the Party

January 9, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Have you noticed precious metals printing fresh highs?

Last week, gold posted new multi-month highs. So did silver and platinum, hitting their highest levels since the spring of 2022.

Not a bad start to 2023 for these shiny rocks. And it gets better!

Gold broke out to new all-time highs relative to bonds last week. The yellow metal is not only showing strength on an absolute basis – it’s also outperforming its alternatives.

These are classic bull market characteristics and two critical pieces of evidence suggesting gold is in the early stages of a new structural uptrend.

If gold is on its way to new all-time highs, gold mining stocks will be participating. 

And it just so happens they are…

If gold prices rise, companies that remove gold from the ground and sell it will surely benefit. Simple!

...

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International Hall of Famers (01-06-2023)

January 6, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

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Metals Shine as Commodity Indexes Sag

January 6, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Bloomberg commodity index $BCOM is breaking down, approaching fresh 52-week lows.

Somehow Gold and Copper didn’t get the memo. They must be too busy printing new highs.

But when we review other major commodity indexes (including our own equal-weight index of 33 individual contracts), they look poised to roll over.

Check out the triple pane chart of the Bloomberg, CRB, and our equal-weight commodity indexes:

It’s interesting to note the differences between these indexes. The weighting structures vary, as do their support levels. But the CRB index and our equal-weight commodity index challenge their 2022 lows while the BCOM has undercut its respective lows. 

Will the other indexes follow BCOM lower, completing major tops? Or will the Bloomberg index reverse higher, holding above former support?

I don’t know. No one does. But that’s not the key takeaway from this chart. Instead, this chart tells me I...