The Beat Report Articles

Nicotine pouches are so trendy right now. 

Tucker Carlson even has his own brand of them. Here's a video (that we found rather humorous) of him explaining why he started the business venture.

The cowboys aren't chewing tobacco anymore, and it's no longer socially acceptable for saloons to have spittoons. 

It's all about being discrete now. Instead of smoking cigarettes, folks are vaping, and instead of chewing tobacco, folks are using nicotine pouches.

Philip Morris is completely dominating this brand-new market.

In 2022, they acquired Swedish Match, the inventor of ZYN, for $16B. This was one of the iconic company's largest acquisitions ever.

Last quarter, they sold nearly 150M cans of ZYN in the U.S., which is about 73% of the total market. 

We think this trend is just beginning.

Philip Morris has rallied after 3 consecutive earnings events. 

What's more, the price is holding above a shelf of former highs from 2017.

In other words, the risk versus...

Do you remember when BlackBerry released the 7200 series in 2003?

It was a massive moment in the history of technology despite looking like a modern handheld calculator.

The commercial launch of this device greatly benefited shareholders. $BB stock rallied over 10,000% from the 2002 low to the 2008 peak.

In Q4 2003, the company reported blowout earnings, which caused the stock to have its best earnings reaction ever.

It was reminiscent of when Nvidia added $200B in market cap after its historic Q2 2023 earnings event.

Unfortunately (for $BB shareholders), they dropped the ball, and Apple blew BlackBerry out of the water with the launch of the iPhone.

Since then, it has completely transformed into a company that's hard to recognize if you formally knew it as "the phone company" decades ago.

BlackBerry is a software company now.

The most significant opportunity lies in its QNX platform, a real-time operating system used in over 255 million vehicles globally.

Auto manufacturing...

GeneDx rallied over 2,500% in 2024 and was the best stock in the market.

What the hell are they doing right? 

They've built genome and exome tests and are the first to commercialize it.

It's a total game changer for pediatrics and humanity.

In most cases, children with a rare disease aren't diagnosed until 8 years old. 

GeneDx saves lives and money for the American taxpayer by diagnosing life-threatening medical conditions far sooner.

Out of the 3M+ babies born annually, less than 20K were tested. Why so few?

This technology is brand new, and the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) has not updated its exome and genome testing guidelines in a decade.

As of today, they tell pediatricians to use these tests as a "last resort." 

The good news is AAP is due to revisit its guidelines in 2025, and you can bet your bottom dollar that they'll change the guidelines.

The market is front-running the opportunity, and so are we.

GeneDx is also sporting a beat streak of 4 quarters. 

This all started in early 2024 when the...

In 2024, the global advertising market grew to nearly $700B, which is expected to reach $1T in 2025.

Fortunes are being made in advertising.

Google, Meta, and Amazon are dominating the industry. However, they're not growing at the same rate as before.

AppLovin is growing the fastest, and 99.9% of Americans have never heard of the company.

$APP rewarded shareholders with an astounding 700% last year.

What's more, we think it's just getting started.

Since AppLovin bottomed in Q4 2022, it has been rewarded for reporting 8 out of 9 times. 

Wall Street loves it when $APP has earnings events.

In addition, we love the chart.

The stock resolved higher a few months ago after carving out a massive basing pattern from 2021-2024. 

It has been screaming higher since then.

We're long $APP above the VWAP anchored to the historic Q4 2024 earnings gap. 

If it can hold above 313, we're looking at 465 and 747 as our initial objectives over the coming 3-6 months.

Around 50% of Americans are obese. 

It's a huge problem! 

Many have turned to the new "wonder drugs" (GLP-1 receptor agonists) from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Unfortunately, these drugs aren't the cure for everyone.

If you're overweight, fatty liver disease is waiting around the corner for you. 

Nearly 65% of U.S. adults are projected to have a fatty liver disease, known by the acronym MASH, by 2030.

Over the last few decades, dozens of biotechnology companies have tried (and failed) to develop a cure for the disease.

Investors have lost fortunes in the process.

Enter Madrigal Pharmaceuticals.

In March 2024, the company was granted FDA approval for its oral medication, Rezdiffra. This is the first MASH medication ever approved.

The chairman and director of the company, Julian Baker, is one of the most respected names in the entire biotech industry. 

We wrote a deep dive on why we (and many others) follow his fund, Baker Brothers Investments. You need to check it out if you haven't already.

The Baker...

Do you remember when Tesla was on the brink of failure? Some of the most well-known bears on Wall Street were betting heavily against the stock.

This changed in May 2013 when the company reported its first-ever quarterly profit. They also became the first U.S. car company to repay a U.S. Department of Energy loan fully, and they did it 9 years early.

It was a total game-changer.

Since then, it has grown to be an auto-manufacturing powerhouse. What's more, it's the global leader in robotics.

The growth isn't slowing down. It's accelerating.

$TSLA just had its second-best earnings reaction ever. The only other quarter that exceeds it is (you guessed it) Q2 2013.

It wasn't about top or bottom-line results. The real story was in the guidance.

Elon Musk, the CEO, confirmed plans to introduce more affordable EVs in 2025 to expand the customer base.

Moreover, the company is on the cusp of launching ride-hailing services via a robotaxi.

The market rewarded $TSLA with...

I've always been a gym rat. But not the Planet Fitness kind...

Give me a ball and a hoop, and I'll be entertained for hours. Even better is a few barrels and a thoroughbred. 

The idea of pumping iron or running on a treadmill with greasy middle-aged men sounds awful. 

However, I can't argue with the market. It keeps rewarding Planet Fitness for its earnings reports!

The company exceeded all expectations last quarter, raised guidance, and raised the price of its base membership for the first time in over 25 years.

PLNT has been a multi-bagger since it bottomed in 2023:

In addition, Planet Fitness resolved a five-year basing pattern on the heels of its last earnings report and is now building up energy for its next leg higher.

We're looking to buy the resolution of this textbook continuation pattern in the coming days.

Thank you for reading.

-Sam

REV Group is a leading manufacturer of specialty vehicles like fire trucks, street sweepers, school buses, and more. 

They provide every type of vehicle a municipality needs. Sounds like a good business, right?

In the past few years, the company has been trying to divest from several segments, such as school buses, because of slowing sales growth and margin compression. 

Instead of school buses, they've aggressively leaned into the fire and emergency vehicle segments. This has boosted profitability, and the market loves it!

REVG just closed at a fresh all-time high on the heels of a mixed report:

As you can see, the market punished the stock for reporting earnings during its prior drawdown from 2018-2020. 

In the nearly five years since it made its all-time low and embarked on a new uptrend, the market has rewarded the stock for reporting 65% of the time.

What's more important to us is this quarter's report was the catalyst for resolving a multi-year accumulation pattern.

Are you adding fire truck exposure to your portfolio? Let me know 🙉

Thank you for reading.