The Beat Report Articles

When there's market volatility, brokers and exchanges thrive.

And that's exactly what we're seeing right now.

Goldman Sachs $GS just reported their Q1 2025 results, and they were incredible.

Their equities segment grew to $4.19B, which is an astounding 27% year-over-year increase.

CEO David Solomon said in the conference call, "Clients are active and people are shifting positions." 

This is putting money in Goldman's pockets.

Let's talk about what else happened with Monday's earnings reactions.

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Goldman Sachs $GS had the best earnings reaction and reported a double beat with a muted reaction score of 0.09. 

The company reported revenues of $15.06B, versus the $14.77B estimate, and earnings per share of $14.12, versus the $12.32 estimate. 

M&T Bank $MTB had the worst earnings reaction and reported a double miss with a reaction score of -0.79. 

The company reported revenues of $2.31B, versus the $2.34B estimate, and earnings per share of $3.32, versus the $3.40 estimate....

We just heard from some of the largest financial institutions in the world, like JPMorgan Chase & Co. $JPM, BlackRock $BLK, and Wells Fargo & Co. $WFC.

3 out of 5 reported double beats, and 2 reported mixed results.

The market rewarded 4 out of 5 for their reports, but 3 out of 5 had negative reaction scores.

Jamie Dimon, one of the most powerful and influential financiers in the world, said the following about the current macro environment:

"The economy is facing considerable turbulence, with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and 'trade wars,' ongoing sticky inflation, high fiscal deficits, and still rather high asset prices and volatility."

In other words, he's not bullish...

Let's talk about what else happened with these reports.

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Fastenal $FAST had the best earnings reaction and reported mixed results with a reaction...

What's this "reaction score" we're always talking about?

It's how we statistically measure how significant an earnings reaction was.

We've tried many different methods, but this is the best way. Trust us, we've done the work...

In this post, we want to teach you how to calculate the reaction score on TradingView.

You can save this as a template in TradingView, so you only need to set it up once.

First, add the rate of change indicator with the length set to 1 and base it on the closing price.

Next, right-click on the ROC indicator (we use the default TradingView indicator) and select Add Indicator/Strategy on ROC.

From there, search for the Z-Score script (we use the script from jwammo12), make the length 252 periods, and calculate based on 1 standard deviation.

Here's what it should look like:

Now that we have the template, we can calculate the reaction score for any stock.

Here's how we do it...

In a spreadsheet, we take the z-score from the S&P 500 and subtract the stock...

There's so much happening right now in the markets.

It often seems like there isn't enough time for a bathroom break...

That could be an exaggeration, but it's directionally accurate. ;)

This is why our director of research, Steve Strazza, has been going LIVE every day after the market opens.

He's pulling back the curtain and showing how a successful trader navigates in this market environment.

These videos are so insightful...

You can catch the replay of yesterday's video where he went through his current shopping list (there's so much alpha here).

Keep an eye on the Stock Market TV website to avoid missing the next event.

Now, let's talk about what's happening with this earnings season.

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Constellation Brands $STZ reported a double beat with a reaction score of 7.65. The market loved it...

The company reported...

Welcome to the 2nd earnings season of 2025!

We're only 10 calendar days into Q2, but so far, there have been a ton of fireworks.

From Trump's "Obliteration Day," last week, to his pivot yesterday, we know one thing's certain...

There's no telling what'll come next.

Right now, more than ever, it's paramount to stay open-minded.

Without further ado, let's talk about the 1st big earnings report of this quarter.

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Delta Air Lines $DAL reported mixed results and had a muted reaction score. 

Yes, the stock was up over 20%...

But it's important to put that in context. Yesterday was a day for the history books.

The company reported revenues of $12.98B, which matched Wall Street's estimate, and earnings per share of $0.46, versus the $0.38 estimate. 

Now let's dive into the data and talk about what happened with this report 👇

Delta...

Q1 2025 was the best earnings reaction since 2015 for Take-Two Interactive Software $TTWO. We talked about it in February.

It reported mixed quarterly results, but rallied 14% with a reaction score of 9.14. The reaction was super bullish.

This was also the stock's 4th consecutive positive earnings reaction. That's one of the highest Beat Streaks in the S&P 500.

Take-Two is one of the largest video game developers in the world. They're known for legendary games such as Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead, and NBA 2K, among others.

In the report, the company reported stronger-than-expected sales of NBA 2K. They sold over 7M units, increasing daily active users by nearly 20%. 

Additionally, the market is enthusiastic about the products in their pipeline. In particular, they're expected to launch a new version of Grand Theft Auto in the fall this year.

This has been one of the most successful video game franchises ever. The market is front-running the potential of the latest edition.

It's not just the...

Aside from a few obscure Consumer Staples names, we've reached the end of the Q1 earnings season.

There were some fantastic double beats and rallies. Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A / $BRK.B was one of those, and it closed last week at a new all-time high.

However, we saw a lot more stocks get slammed for beating expectations.

The world's largest retailer, Walmart $WMT, snapped a 3-quarter beat streak after it reported a double beat. The stock has continued to print fresh lows.

Crowdstrike $CRWD is another name that got slammed for reporting a double beat.

Last week, we told you that we were looking forward to the Lululemon $LULU earnings...

The end of the Q1 2025 earnings season is approaching.

Tonight is the last big report. Lululemon $LULU is scheduled to report earnings after the close today, and we're expecting fireworks. Its Q4 2024 earnings reactions (~+16%) was one of the best ever.

The market is expecting the company to report revenues of $3.58B and earnings per share of $5.85.

As we're writing this, the stock is trading at its high of the day (~+3%).

Stay tuned...

For now, let's talk about the earnings reactions from Wednesday.

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Cintas $CTAS had the best earnings reaction. They reported revenues of $2.61B versus the $2.60 estimate and earnings per share of $1.13 versus the $1.06 estimate.

Paychex $PAYX had the 2nd-best earnings reaction. They reported in-line revenues and earnings per share of $1.49 versus the $1.48 estimate.

Finally, Dollar Tree $DLTR also had a positive earnings reaction. They reported revenues of $5B versus the $8.24 estimate and earnings per share of $2.29 versus the $2.20 estimate. 

Now, let's dive into...

McCormick & Company $MKC reported earnings on Tuesday.

This is the company that has grown into the leader in all things related to flavor. Their products include Frank's RedHot, Cholula, and much more. 

It's basically impossible to have a kitchen without a McCormick label.

The stock has been a leader in the Consumer Staples sector and has rallied after its last 5 earnings reports. This is one of the longest beat streaks in the S&P 500.

Following the release of its report, the stock opened 5% lower but rallied throughout the day to close nearly flat for the session. It was an epic comeback for the bulls!

What initially spooked the market?

It was all about the guidance. 

The market was expecting the company to announce an upward revision of its forward guidance. Instead, they maintained the current guidance.

Let's talk about what else happened.

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As you can see, McCormick reported a double miss. Their revenue was in line, but the EPS number came in 4 cents below the estimate.

There is a significant...

Nike reported earnings on Thursday evening, and the market crushed it on Friday.

It was the stock's 4th consecutive negative earnings reaction. This is one of the longest beat-down streaks in the S&P 500.

Our retail analyst, Jeff Macke, said, "Nike (was) expected to report its worst quarter in years." The expectations were super low, allowing the company to beat expectations across the board.

They reported revenues of $11.27B versus the $11.02 estimate and $0.54 per share versus the $0.30 estimate. It was a great quarter, so why didn't the market reward the stock?

Here's what Jeff thinks, "because of the massive size of the Nike, turning it around is like doing doughnuts in an aircraft carrier. It takes time and space."

In other words, the market wants to see more. 

Nike is guilty until proven innocent.

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As you can see...

We recently wrote a deep dive into the boom in AI Consulting. These companies help businesses harness machine learning, automation, and data analytics.

As AI products and services become increasingly powerful, the demand for AI consultants to help implement them will only grow.

It's a brand-new mega trend.

The only problem is that the industry is entirely dominated by International Business Machines $IBM. Traditional consulting firms like Accenture $ACN are getting their butts kicked.

Accenture reported a double beat on Thursday and got crushed for it. The stock closed 7.26% lower and was down over 10% intra-day.

The reaction was nasty.

The company's operating margin is compressing due to increased competition. Moreover, the market is concerned the new administration in Washington will quit doing business with ACN. This would be a significant loss in revenue.

They also issued weak guidance for 2025, which only made things worse.

Accenture has enjoyed an industry with limited competition for...

General Mills $GIS slid lower on Wednesday after reporting mixed earnings.

The company's margins are contracting because of inflationary pressures. Last quarter alone, the gross margin fell 60 basis points to 33.4% of net sales.

In addition, the North American, pet, and international segments experienced a 7%, 5%, and 4% decrease in net sales, respectively. It wasn't good...

The management team discussed consumer confidence at levels last seen in 2008. This is a big problem for a company directly exposed to the consumer!

Overall, this report was a disaster, and the market punished the stock for it.

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As you can see, the $32.63B packaged foods company reported revenues of $4.84B, versus the $4.95B estimate, and earnings per share of $1, versus the $0.96 estimate.

The stock fell 2% with a reaction score of -2.99, and it's now flirting with fresh 4-year lows.

Now, let's talk about the technical setup.

General Mills has suffered a drawdown of...