You guys know how much I like my intermarket analysis. It's a tool that we have as market participants that simply cannot be ignored. If you're putting together a portfolio for a client, managing your own account or just looking for major trends,...
Chemical stocks are breaking out to all-time highs. It's not just one or two of them either, they are doing this collectively as a unit. When we see broad-based participation out of a group, it's not something we want to ignore. Today I want to smooth...
If you told the average market participant that momentum stocks outperformed this week and are in the process of breaking out relative to the overall market, they would say you're crazy. But for those of us who ignore the gossip columns and instead...
I've been out of town for the past week clearing my head and taking a break from markets. This is one of the most important parts of my entire process. I explained why in this post. While...
The debate that will always persist is the Stocks vs Gold question. Do we own gold? Do we own stocks? Do we own both? What percentage of our portfolio should be in precious metals? Do we own the physical or the ETF? Whether Gold is at new highs or new...
This concept of new 52-week highs can be somewhat confusing. I get it. How does it work? If we make new highs and the list of new highs doesn't confirm, do we short everything? How do we know if and when the internals of the market have confirmed...
Most of you who know me already know that I incorporate a top/down, weight-of-the-evidence approach. It's not just 1 chart or 1 indicator that says to be long or short the stock market. It doesn't work that way. For me, I put in the work, weigh ALL of...
The US Stock Market has been like watching grass grow. It's a hot mess and I'm all for it. We turned Neutral towards US Stocks in March so watching both the bulls and the bears get whipped around is great theater from our cash heavy seats. Nothing I'...
Last week the Nasdaq100 went out at new all-time weekly closing highs. While that might seem like a bullish characteristic on the surface, I think it's important to recognize what is happening within the actual index itself. Like I always try and...
It's hard to ignore certain market moves that tend to be very rare. Bullish outside days that engulf the prior period are one of those. I think this is exactly what we saw this week in the AMEX Arline Index and it is something we want to respect. This...
Intermarket Analysis is a fantastic tool that is available to us as technicians regardless of our time horizon. Certain gauges of risk appetite, or risk aversion, can be seen simultaneously throughout various asset classes. We use these correlations...
I'm lucky in that I learned early in my career that we're in a global market place. The United States, while it is certainly important, is just one country within a massive interconnected global market. We see this more and more every day. Many choose...
While so many people seem to be focused on the major US Indexes like the S&P500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching the irrelevant 20,000 level, I prefer to...
I love technical analysis. I really do. There's no question that finding a nice chart brings a great amount of joy to my life. Today I want to share with you what I think is one of the most important developments to occur over the past couple of...
One of the more impressive moves that we've seen in 2016 is in the Industrial space. While we came into the year near multi-year lows on a relative basis (XLI/SPY), we entered December hitting new all-time highs relative to the S&P500. You want to...
Last week I shared with you guys a "Mystery Chart" without any labels on it. The point of this exercise is to eliminate any biases and focus only on facts...
Every now and then I throw out a mystery chart just to get us thinking. Not knowing what a chart represents helps eliminate biases or any ideas we may already have in our heads. Today we are looking at what I think is one of the more interesting...
Throughout the second half of 2016 I've remained in the camp that interest rates are going higher and that bonds are a fade. The action into 4th of July weekend originally put me in that camp and I continue to believe that, bigger picture, this is the...
You guys know that I consider the S&P500 to be just one index in just one country in just one asset class in the entire world. There is a lot more out there. And while this might be true, I would also argue that this one index is one of the more...
It's important to recognize what type of environment we're in for the market. During different times of the year, traders and investors tend to behave in certain ways. When you smooth out the data over many years, their patterns become clear. We all...
The headline writers do their best to make you think that Gold is a US Dollar story. But in the real world, the one we're all forced to live in, Gold is a Gold story. It really has nothing to do with the US Dollar, and if you price gold in the other...
You guys who have followed my work over the years know how many charts I look at on a daily and weekly basis. Believe it or not, it's probably even more than you think. Some things pique my interest more than others, of course, but it's the collective...
One of the benefits of it being 2016 is that global markets are more interrelated than ever before. We can take price data from the other side of the world and use it to take advantage of domestic markets in the United States as well as many other...
Over the last few years, all we've heard from the financial media and economists are how we're in a "rising rate environment" and interest rates are going up. They keep averaging down on their irresponsible calls because they can. They have no skin in...