Decision Time for Dollars

When the tape gets noisy, we like to simplify our process and let the most important charts do the talking.

Many of 2025’s best themes—Europe, Latin America, Asia, precious metals, commodity equities—have ridden a weak Dollar tailwind. 

Our base case is that it continues over the long term, but we’re taking a more tactical look today.

November is running hotter than usual for the US Dollar Index $DXY. Seasonally, the buck tends to cool into year-end, yet this month it’s been firmer than the historical script, up around 50 basis points over its average. 

Under the hood, major currencies have been weakening against the Dollar for months. EUR and GBP are the sturdier pairs, CAD is slipping, and JPY—true to form—remains the weakest link. 

Together, they sketch a set of distribution patterns that suggest Dollar strength will persist in the short run, even while the primary trend remains lower. 

Historically, December is the worst month of the year for the Dollar. As we march into year-end, this seasonal headwind would favor these tactical tops failing. 

If, however, the DXY continues its ascent, it might not only dampen the global risk asset party but could even place it on a prolonged temporary hold.

Ultimately, price is what matters. We’ll follow the price, not the calendar. Our line in the sand hasn’t changed: the COVID-anchored VWAP near 100.50.

It also coincides with the VWAP from the 2025 high, reinforcing the importance of this key polarity zone.

We’re knocking on it now. Below that level, the weak Dollar regime remains intact, and the path of least resistance for global risk assets is higher across timeframes. 

Reclaim it—and hold—and we’ll respect the squeeze and rethink the ex-US/EM/commodities bid going into 2026. 

The current level simply marks an inflection point—look for the current countertrend rally to either kick off a fresh leg higher, or for DXY to fail and fall back in line with the primary downtrend.