From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities are in the early innings of a secular bull run.

The list of raw materials hitting all-time highs since 2020 includes Gold, Copper, Wheat, Soybean Oil, Cattle,  Orange Juice, Cocoa, Heating Oil, Gasoline, Palm Oil, Lumber, Tin, Rebar, Iron Ore, and Coal. (If that roll call doesn’t scream commodity supercycle, I don’t know what does.) 

It’s an exhaustive list that will only grow in the coming years. Remember, these cycles can last decades. We’re only in year four!

Of course, there are also some laggards amongst the ranks. (ahem, Crude). But don’t lose sight of the bigger picture! 

Even Soybeans are queuing up for new all-time highs…

Check out soybean futures zoomed out to the 1950s:

Prices blasted higher in the mid-70s, tracing the upper bounds of a new trading range that defined prices for the next thirty years.

A similar pattern emerged during the last commodity supercycle in the early to mid-2000s. Soybean futures bottomed in 2002, ripped to the former all-time highs and then pulled back before skyrocketing into a new...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors are finally waking up to gold.

Friends and family are blowing up my phone (and this time, it’s not just about baby pics). They’ve noticed gold’s rally to new highs – and they want to know whether to buy physical gold or an ETF — bars or coins. 

But silver has yet to enter the conversation…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors are finally waking up to gold.

Friends and family are blowing up my phone (and this time, it’s not just about baby pics). They’ve noticed gold’s rally to new highs – and they want to know whether to buy physical gold or an ETF — bars or coins. 

But silver has yet to enter the conversation…

I get it. New all-time highs have a way of capturing the investor’s collective conscience. 

But while gold is printing new all-time highs, silver futures post a mere multi-month high. 

I’m no fan of the catch-up trade, as I always want to own the strongest name(s), but check out silver’s four-decade base:

What a monster!

Silver reached its peak in early 1980 at roughly 41.50. The bulls didn’t see that level again until the spring of 2011 when price ran just shy of 50.

Spring is ahead today, and the soft, shiny metal is trading at approximately 25. That means it would have to double before hitting a new all-time high. 

I’m not waiting around for silver to complete this half-century base.

Here’s how I want to play it…

A significant...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals are working.

Gold is printing new all-time highs. Copper is trading above four bucks. And Palladium…

Well, Palladium has stopped going down.

Considering Palladium’s Commitment of Traders (COT) profile, its tendency to trend with technology stocks, and where it stopped falling…

It’s time to buy!

Check out the long-term Palladium chart stretching back to the late 70s:

Palladium is bouncing off a critical extension level based on the early 1980s decline — a level that acted as resistance for almost two decades.

The principle of polarity is springing into action, just as it did in 2018 when buyers stepped in and defended those former highs. 

Approximately 850 marks this critical area of former resistance turned support and a logical level to trade against. 

Add commercial hedgers’ record-long position, and Palladium could catapult higher in the coming quarters.

Strong hands move markets, mainly the hands of Commercial hedgers. Commercials are the “smart money” with the deepest pockets.   

Historically, they have...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is silencing all the haters – even me!

I’ll admit, I had my doubts. 

But I also carried an unnerving suspicion buyers would strike as soon as I dropped my guard…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is silencing all the haters – even me!

I’ll admit, I had my doubts. 

But I also carried an unnerving suspicion buyers would strike as soon as I dropped my guard…

Gold futures sliced through our breakout level last week, closing at record highs:

Unbelievable… Or, better yet, undeniable.

Gold not only hit a new all-time high, it broke out with authority as it gained more than 4% last week. 

The path of least resistance points higher toward 2,500 (our initial objective). But the price of gold could go much higher.

Gold is embarking on a new secular bull run:

As it rips to new heights, it will take the entire metal and mining space along for the ride.

But we’re in the early innings of an uptrend that could last for years to come.

Instead of catching falling knives or taking cute catch-up trades, it’s best to simplify our strategy and buy the strongest names. 

Gold mining stocks have suffered for years, and a handful of names were absolutely clobbered last month. A few gold miners are even offering up the mother-of-all mean...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is up for the sixth day in a row – and it looks like this week’s breakout might be the real deal.

If it is — and gold continues to rip — it’s only a matter of time before copper breaks out too.

Check out the overlay chart of gold and copper futures:

Where gold goes, copper follows. Or perhaps they simply enjoy similar paths.

The rhyme or reason makes no difference. During a commodity bull run, precious and industrial metals will enter a broad markup phase. Gold will not take off on a rip-roaring rally without copper by its side.

I placed a question mark above copper’s former resistance level, marked by the 2011 and 2022 highs. To be clear, the annotation poses the question of when — not if – copper will resolve higher.

But before Dr. Copper can break the psychological barrier of five dollars, it must cut loose above four.

It’s getting close…

Copper futures are carving out a multi-month base as buyers chip away at overhead supply.

An eight-week inverted head-and-shoulders pattern is forming just below the breakout level. I expect this pattern to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

You can’t keep the gold bugs down.

They’re a hearty bunch full of true grit, choosing to focus on the silver lining while persevering through countless downturns.

Gold, on the other hand, has been an easy target…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

You can’t keep the gold bugs down.

They’re a hearty bunch full of true grit, choosing to focus on the silver lining while persevering through countless downturns.

Gold, on the other hand, has been an easy target…

Every time buyers have managed to drive the price back to the 2,089 level… 

Rejected! 

Sellers have stepped in, capping price while breaking the hearts of gold bugs everywhere. 

Or so I thought. It turns out you can’t break a gold bug’s heart. 

Try as they might, sellers are no match for gold bugs’ bullish conviction. 

Buyers rushed in, driving price higher following last month’s breakdown:

I’ll admit, I didn’t see this week’s retest and possible breakout coming.

The market simply wore me down. I guess I’m not what you might consider a true gold bug. 

You can call me weak if you like. But that won’t stop me from buying gold futures on a decisive daily close above 2,100 with a target of approximately 2,500.

And it shouldn’t stop you, either.

Gold mining stocks will also spring back to life if gold...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What happened to those everyday commodity contracts the average investor follows?

I’m talking about crude oil, gold, and copper.

These days, it’s all about cattle futures, orange juice, or cocoa hitting an all-time high. 

I’m sure everyone down at the NYMEX or the folks over at the CBOT in Chicago are having a ball. But what about the stock traders trying to get a piece of the action?

Sure, the energy trade is starting to work again. But gold has been a range-bound mess since the summer of 2020. And gold mining stocks have been an absolute dumpster fire.

It just doesn’t make sense amid a commodity bull run…

No, the absence of gold and copper breakouts doesn’t make much sense, and neither does crude oil underperforming gold as interest rates rise:

But black gold’s lack of relative strength speaks more to the range-bound nature of precious metals than crude oil weakness.

In fact, Gold is retesting its 2020 high for the fourth time in just under four years.

Will it finally break out? 

I don’t know. But an upside resolution in gold futures will likely...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The market is punishing investors for owning gold mining stocks.

Sure, a handful of gold miners are holding above key levels.

Buenaventura S.A.A. $BVN, Orla Mining $ORLA, and Harmony Gold $HMY belong to this elite group of outperformers.

But that’s about it.

I’m not giving these trades too much room. And I’m not piling into new long positions. Not yet! 

Here’s why…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The market is punishing investors for owning gold mining stocks.

Sure, a handful of gold miners are holding above key levels.

Buenaventura S.A.A. $BVN, Orla Mining $ORLA, and Harmony Gold $HMY belong to this elite group of outperformers.

But that’s about it.

I’m not giving these trades too much room. And I’m not piling into new long positions. Not yet! 

Here’s why…

Gold mining stocks continue to print fresh lows versus the broader market.

Check out the VanEck Gold Miners ETF $GDX relative to the S&P 500 ETF $SPY:

Since its inception in 2006, GDX has never traded at this much of a discount to the S&P 500. This is the exact opposite of what we would see if gold and other precious metals were in an uptrend.

The strongest trending assets outperform their alternatives. 

On the other hand, precious metals are exhibiting relative weakness – a clear sign of a severe downtrend.

Investors are more interested in buying NVIDIA Corp. $NVDA and Super Micro Computer $SMCI.

No one wants to own shares of companies that dig in the...