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Yields Do NOT Pass The Vibe Check

January 14, 2025

Today is the infamous CPI day, where thousands of traders panic trade a number that's already baked into every model from here to Jupiter.

The real story? Yields are up, and they're throwing hands on my stock portfolio.

CPI day is basically astrology for finance bros. We check the numbers and retrofit narratives to explain why the market did exactly the opposite of what everyone predicted. "Mercury must be in retrograde" has about the same predictive power as Wall Street forecasts right now.

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2 Stocks to Buy

January 14, 2025

We're back on The Morning Show today LIVE on Stock Market TV!

If you want to know what's moving markets this week, and how we're thinking about profiting from it, then the Morning Show is for you!

Today's guest is Jay Woods, New York Stock Exchange Floor Governor and Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. He messaged me that he disagrees with my take on the market so we're about to debate LIVE on the show. You're not going to want to miss this one!

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[Gold Rush] It's Time to Buy the Mining Stocks and Here's Why ⚒️📈

January 13, 2025

If you're bullish on gold and silver mining, it's time to BUY BUY BUY.

Gold was the best-performing asset class in 2024, far outpacing precious metal stocks. 

We wouldn't be surprised to see the mining stocks catchup in 2025. Why?

Sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. 

This chart suggests it's time for some mean reversion 👇

 

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The Minor Leaguers (01-13-2025)

January 13, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

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US Dollar Wrecking Ball

January 13, 2025

We're back on The Morning Show today LIVE on Stock Market TV!

If you want to know what's moving markets this week, and how we're thinking about profiting from it, then the Morning Show is for you!

Today's guest is fellow twin-boy dad Todd Gordon, Portfolio Manager at Inside Edge Capital. Todd is an old pal, veteran trader and world class skier. You're not going to want to miss this conversation!

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Same Ol’ Situation

January 12, 2025

The Mötley Crüe song title comes to mind: Same Ol' Situation. 

It's always the same questions. Every bull market.

How much higher can stocks possibly go? Was that last high the top? Why is the economy not as strong as the stock market? 

That's the thing. We want to pay attention to what's happening around us. Because we've seen it before and we'll see it again. It's just humans being humans. 

I like to turn to the data and weigh the evidence so we can try to make the most informed decisions possible.

The way I see it, this has been a bull market for quite some time, well into year 3 now. Whenever a lagging sector has been most vulnerable to break down from a major top, the opposite has happened.

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(Freshly Squeezed) Why We're Bullish on Making Babies 🐣📈

January 12, 2025

We've been pounding the table on Walgreens Boots Alliance as one of the best potential short squeezes in the entire market. We nailed it!

The stock rallied nearly 30% on Friday for its best earnings reaction ever. 

This isn't an isolated event. Short sellers are getting squeezed all over the place.

Healthcare is one sector that is particularly ripe for a short squeeze. It's home to some of the most hated stocks in the world.

Stocks like Progyny are precisely what we're looking for, and here's why:

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More Bull Market Behavior

January 11, 2025

We're in the 3rd year of a bull market and sector rotation continues to be a dominant theme that's driving stock prices higher, and probably more importantly, not allowing them to go lower.

Stocks making new lows is a big deal, and it's a prerequisite in order to have a bear market or a downtrend of any kind. As we discussed this week, the current market lacks this key characteristic - that is new lows. You can't have a market correction without them. It's just math.

Also during corrections, you regularly see rotation into the more defensive stocks, like Consumer Staples. You don't have that either. In fact, Consumer Staples just closed at new all-time lows relative to the S&P500.

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New All-time Lows For Defensives

January 10, 2025

Sector rotation continues to be a major driving factor in this market.

We talked about it earlier this week in our LIVE Strategy Session

While some sectors and industry groups have been taking a breather, after these historic runs, other stocks have been catching a bid - things like Medical Equipment, Airlines and now Energy stocks.

The one constant, however, is the rotation OUT of Consumer Staples.

This defensive sector consistently outperforms when stocks are under pressure, and when it's a less than ideal environment to be putting risk on in equities.

This is the opposite of that.

Look at the new all-time lows for Consumer Staples relative to the S&P500:

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(Commodities Weekly) Commodities Are Soaring in 2025: Watch This Chart for What's Next 📈

January 10, 2025

The commodity bears are going into hibernation.

Today was the best day in years for commodities relative to stocks and bonds. 

Inflation expectations are hitting a fresh 30-month high, with crude oil's price breaking out to 10-week highs.

We think this is the beginning of a much longer period of commodity outperformance.

A few weeks ago, we told you a big move in the energy markets was coming. We think this recent price action has marked the beginning of that move.

In addition, we outlined why we're buying copper futures last week, and so far, that trade has been a home run.

What's next?