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After 2 years of 20%+ returns for S&P500

January 6, 2025

There's no way the S&P500 can rally again this year, right?

We just had 2 consecutive years of historic returns. The Nasdaq literally doubled since the end of 2022. 

Total Crypto Market-cap is now at $3.4 Trillion. It was only $750 Billion 2 years ago. You do the math!

The S&P500 was up 24% in 2023 and then up another 23% in 2024. 

How could things possibly get any better than this? I mean with the Fed, and the Inflation, and the Trump, and the Recession and the imminent crisis they all keep telling us about.

How could stocks possibly go up again in 2025? After the historic returns we just saw in back-to-back years?

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The Bellwether To Watch in Q1

January 4, 2025

It's a new year and the market is looking forward. 

It doesn't matter what happened last year, as far as our decisions are concerned. But let's not forget that humans are irrational, and they will certainly let the past year or two impact their decision making.

They can't help themselves. So it's up to us as traders and investors to extract those dollars for our own selfish reasons. 

We're here to make money. Period. Taking advantage of human flaws is a great way to do that, as I've been showing you here every day for over a decade. 

Yesterday we discussed the irrational behavior we're seeing from investors in the middle of a bull market. They're running scared, just as market breadth is improving to the upside, across multiple timeframes.

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Retail Investors Are Scared

January 3, 2025

The Retail Investors are scared to death. And that's a good thing.

We don't want individual investors too optimistic. That's when stocks sell off. It's when they're pessimistic and worried that you see the best forward returns.

Go back and see for yourself. It's all public information. These are the people we want to fade. This is the "Dumb" money, so to speak.

Dig this. The first sentiment data for the year just came out from the American Association of Individual Investors with the fewest number of bulls since April of last year.

In the middle of the bull market, they're crazy scared. 

Good.

Now keep in mind, this is specifically what they're saying

But what are they doing?

Well, the Put/Call Ratio just hit new 4-month highs. This means investors are buying insurance (Put options) at a much faster rate than they're betting on higher stock prices (Call options). 

That's also evidence that they're scared. Why else would you be buying insurance at such a fast rate?

Now, what else are they doing?

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(Commodities Weekly) Feeling Under The Weather? Go See Dr. Copper⚕️😷

January 3, 2025

Did you know China outperformed the United States stock market in 2024? We have the data.

We think this relative strength will persist, and if that's the case, don't forget about copper!

We discussed the long-term positive correlation between Chinese equities and copper futures a few months ago. 

Why does this relationship exist?

China is the world's largest consumer of refined copper and accounts for over 50% of global consumption. 

If one is going to work, so will the other.

More importantly, copper futures are testing a key level of interest:

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(Freshly Squeezed) Turbocharge Your Portfolio: A Zinc-Powered Short Squeeze 🍋🔋

January 3, 2025

The market seems ripe for a good short squeeze. Don't you think?

Despite many market participants questioning the robustness of the current bull market, the worst stocks in the world keep outperforming

These stocks will get blasted and dramatically underperform in a true bear market environment.

We're seeing the opposite.

So we've gone through our Freshly Squeezed universe, and one name stands out.

Eos Energy Enterprises $EOSE, a $1.2B battery stock.

It's sporting a 27% short interest and a 7x days-to-cover ratio.

When the short sellers overstay their welcome (as they have in this instance), we look for opportunities to take the other side. 

Why? The risk versus reward is skewed in our favor.

Here's how we're trading $EOSE:

 

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International Hall of Famers (01-03-2025)

January 3, 2025

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

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ASC Mastermind Week 12: How To Find The Next $100 Billion Stock

Below is the 12th ASC Mastermind  Course. In this video, I dive answer a question that every new trader/investor wants to know: how do I find the next $100 Billion stock?

I get variations of this question every time I talk to young traders. "JC, how do I find the next NVIDIA?" Or "JC, how do you know which stocks are the best long-term plays?" Or my personal favorite, "JC, how can you buy this when it has such a high P/E ratio?"

Here's the deal. My answer to those latter two questions is this:  I'm most interested in stocks that are going up. And if a stock keeps going up, I will keep wanting to own it. Bar none. 

My answer to the first question is a little more nuanced. But there is an answer. And that's what this Mastermind is all about. We had this very question ourselves a few years ago, so we set out to reverse-engineer it. We made it so mathematically the next $100 Billion company HAS to come from this list.

Enjoy.

 

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2 to 100 Club (01-02-2025)

January 2, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

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Bitcoin: Was that the top?

January 1, 2025

The no coiners are back.

Have you noticed how every chance they get, they'll try to convince you that this is a major top for Bitcoin and the ponzi scheme is officially over?

The no coiners are angry like that. Imagine what it must be like to not have owned Bitcoin this entire time? Ouch.

Here's the "historic top" they're trying to scare you about. 

You tell me, does this look like the end of a major bull market, or does this just look like a normal healthy consolidation within an ongoing secular bull market?

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Tesla Highest Close Ever

January 1, 2025

Tesla wins again. 

Elon has done his job better than any other CEO in the world.

The role of a CEO is to increase shareholder value. Period.

How about a 3000% return in a couple of years, followed by a few years digesting those gains. And then another 180% return from the lows this Spring, adding an additional $800 Billion in market-cap...

Here is a chart showing the highest monthly close in company history. Highest Quarterly close in company history. And the highest annual close in the history of Tesla.

This is what winning looks like:

 

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The Coming US Dollar Collapse?

December 31, 2024

We're in the heart of whipsaw hunting season.

Now is the time.

Every year we see an extended trend, going into late December, that extends just a bit too much, and then completely unwinds once the new year begins and the big portfolio managers are back at their desks.

Look at what happened to US Treasury Bonds at the end of 2013. Look at what happened to Gold and precious metals at the end of 2015. And look at Large-cap Growth stocks at the end of 2022. 

These are just a few examples, just to give you an idea of the power of the end-of-year whipsaw.

So because of experiences like these throughout my investing career, I've made it a point to look for the leading candidates for this end-of-year period that I call "Whipsaw Hunting Season".

We're hunting for this year's epic whipsaw, like the bond ripper in 2014, the Rally in Precious metals in early 2016 and the historic returns of Large-cap Growth stocks in early 2023.

We don't know for sure until after the fact, but this year's leading candidate, to me, has to be the US Dollar.