From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Nasdaq is ripping to new all-time highs. NVIDIA’s market cap is surpassing the three-trillion-dollar mark. And US T-bonds are registering another buy signal. 

But the market’s still a mess. 

Just look at yesterday’s intraday reversal—a bullish reaction to inflation data in the morning, followed by a bearish reaction to the FOMC meeting in the afternoon. Investors are still trying to make sense of the mid-week hoopla.

Friday’s close (the most important data point of the week) will reveal critical information regarding market conviction heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, you can track high-yield bonds for risk-on confirmation.

Check out the HY Bond ETF $HYG overlaid with the high beta-versus-low volatility ratio (using the $SPHB and $SPLV ETFs):

These two charts are carbon copies over the trailing 52 weeks because HYG is a risk asset...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions.
2. Adjustment to QQQ position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, and Occidental Petroleum $OXY take the spotlight again today.

Buffett and Berkshire continue to accumulate shares of OXY, this time disclosing a purchase worth roughly $105 million.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

Here's another trade for the "Hard" file...

It's "Fed Day." So I'm not interested in putting on any trades that might be material affected by any post-fed reaction. But I did find one that is trading in it's own universe, divorced from whatever may or may not come out of Washington.

This is a trade that will be hard for many people. Not hard to execute, just hard to comprehend the why?

Some people will look at the chart and be afraid of a pullback.

Some people will see that it's a $4 stock and say: "no thanks."

Others will hate the sector it's in.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions.
2. Adjustment to SMH position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

OK, the title of this note is a little tongue-in-cheek.

But let me explain.

I’m a rules based trader. I’m nothing without my rules. Without rules, I’m just a trader pissing in the wind, driven in multiple directions by my volatility and ever-changing emotional reactions to my intraday PnL.

That’s no way to live.

Once I committed to being intentional about every trade I put on, my trading jumped to a new level. This process includes a thoughtful rationale for my thesis, position sizing, stop loss, and profit-taking levels.

So these days, whenever positions are moving either for or against me, I take comfort in knowing that I don’t need to make any new decisions – even as my emotions tug at me to do something! I already know what to do because I laid it out in my original trading plan.

And for me, that works 95% of the time.

Why not 100%?

Because nothing is perfect. Not the setup. Not me. Not the rules. Nothing.

Occasionally, I need to use a little discretion. Thankfully, not often. But when I do, I do it from a position of strength.

This is on my mind today because I currently have two...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider buy on today’s list comes via a Form 4 filing by Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A.

The Mexico-based investment company reported an additional purchase of PBF Energy Inc $PBF shares with a total value of $2.6 million.

It's not a bad thing for America, Americans or the American Stock Market that the largest companies in the country are going up in price.

The best players are scoring a lot of points.

That's perfectly normal.

In fact, if you go back and study every bull market over the past 100 years, you'll notice that Technology is a leader in almost every single one of them.

Tech stocks doing well, and outperforming other sectors, is just a classic characteristic of a bull market.

While crypto markets are exhibiting short-term weakness, the Bitcoin mining stocks are working tremendously.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Check out these currency headlines:

The Buck Strikes Back… 

Investors Sideline a Defiant Dollar… 

Dollar Down? The 10-Year Says “Yes!”... 

The USD Rally Proves Sticky… 

Weighing a Potential Dollar Breakdown…

Well, which is it? Is the dollar going up… or down?

I have no idea. 

But given the market's current shape, your best forex bets are to short the euro and buy the yen…

If that sounds familiar, I shared a similar perspective during last month’s Fed Day.

A month and a half later, the euro is trading at...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions.
2. Adjustment to XME position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!