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ARK Is Loading ROKU and CERS

February 13, 2023

Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management is on our list today, as it just filed amended 13Gs for Roku Inc $ROKU and Cerus Corporation $CERS.

The asset manager reported a small increase in its ownership of ROKU, from 9.94% to 10.12%.

For its CERS position,  it revealed a stake of 10.11%, up from the 8.94% previously reported.

Re: Goldman Sags

February 12, 2023

Did you see what the haters over at The Economist published last week?

Most of you have been around for a while so you already know.

But if you're new here to Allstarcharts, let's just say we do very well consistently taking the other side of this publication.

Few contrarian indicators are as reliable as The Economist:

Is this Euphoria? Doubt it.

February 11, 2023

Remember last year when everyone was bearish?

And I mean everyone!

It was funny, there I was telling people it was a new bull market, because we actually do the work around here, but investors weren't buying it.

In fact, we saw 44 consecutive weeks of more bears than bulls among individual investors. This was an even longer streak than we saw during the Financial crisis. Longer than COVID.

People were really angry.

You can see the AAII Bulls and Bears, along with their consecutive streaks plotted below:

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The Hall of Famers (02-10-2023)

February 10, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing...

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend: Did Analysts Get Too Pessimistic?

February 10, 2023

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

Nearly three-quarters of the way through Q4 earnings season, two things stand out: stocks that have reported earnings misses have been less severely punished than in the past and an increasing number of companies are having their earnings estimates for the coming year revised higher. 

Why It Matters: This earnings season has hardly been spectacular and the percentage of companies beating estimates has been below average. Aggregate earnings numbers may (or may not) need to be revised lower as we move through 2023. But at this point, the worst case scenarios are not playing out and that has left plenty of folks offsides. Investors have moved to embrace the strength we have seen so far in 2023 and analysts are running higher numbers through their models. After seeing fewer and fewer upward revisions to earnings estimates in H2 2021 and H1 2022, the trend stabilized over the second half of last year and for now is ticking higher. The market doesn’t tend to get into too much trouble when analysts have...

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Seeing the Spin on Natural Gas

February 10, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I want to share with you a trade idea I wouldn’t have considered a year ago.

I balked at first. This trade’s simply not in my wheelhouse. But I’ve learned so much here at All Star Charts over the past three years.

And "to be open-minded" has been one of the most impactful lessons. 

Now, this setup has my full attention. Risk is well-defined, and the upside potential is heavily skewed in our favor.

I can see the spin on the pitch.

I’m talking about natural gas…

Before I lay out the levels, let’s step back and look at the big picture.

Natural gas stocks, represented by the Natural Gas ETF $FCG, haven't experienced the same extreme sell-off as natural gas futures $NGF:

In fact, they’re hanging tough much like other energy stocks. We’ve seen this before with crude oil and the Energy Sector ETF $XLE in recent quarters. 

So far, crude oil is carving out a base while XLE continues its...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Chewing Through Short Interest

February 10, 2023

Strazza and I did The Flow show earlier this week in which one trade that stood out and caught my interest was a juicy short squeeze candidate.

Checking back on it today, the stock still maintains a short position greater than 20%. That means more than one-fifth of all shares outstanding are held by people with a short position. And if this stock starts busting higher, the only way traders holding a short position can end the pain is to buy the stock.

This can potentially fuel a rapid rise in share prices (see: Gamestop $GME circa early 2020).

I'm certainly not calling for a repeat of past meme stocks short squeezes here, but in this case, we've got a stock that's chart is in the middle of completing a beautiful base and short holders are no doubt keeping their fingers near the trigger to exit this position quickly if we see some follow thru to the upside.

That creates opportunities for us.