From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership withThe TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
Welcome back to our latest Under The Hood column where we'll cover all the action for the week ended February 3, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated on-and-off with our Minor Leaguers column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Reclaiming a Valuable Line
From an information standpoint, the Value Line Geometric Index (VLG) is one of the best tools we have at our disposal as it represents the median stock’s performance. Seeing this index make a higher high as it reclaims its prior-cycle highs from 2018 and peak from last August is a major bullish development.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Macro Universe:
This week, our macro universe was negative, with 57% of our list closing lower with a median return of -0.16%.
The Dow Jones Transports $DJT was the winner with a 7.15% gain.
The biggest loser was Oil $CL, with a weekly loss of -7.89%.
There was a 4% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 17%.
36% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs, and 36% made new 13-...
After falling for four straight months, the US dollar index $DXY is up three days in a row. Whether the near-term dollar strength turns into a more sustained trend is anyone’s guess.
Regardless, risk assets feel the pressure as many areas begin to correct, including precious metals.
Despite this recent selling pressure, we have clear levels to trade against when it comes to Silver and mining stocks.
The number of stocks making new lows remains negligible. Last week, the number of stocks making new 52-week highs on the NYSE + NASDAQ surpassed a number of prior peaks (Dec 2021, Apr 2022, Nov 2022). It’s now at its highest level since November 2021.
More Context: Everyone has their own definition of a bull market. For me, it’s when more stocks are making new highs than new lows. Bear markets tend to end when new lows drop below new highs. Bull markets are sustained when new high lists expand. We are seeing that now among individual stocks and we are seeing that at the industry group level (especially outside of large-caps). In moving from 2022 to 2023 we have transitioned from broad weakness to broad strength. Big day-to-day price swings haven’t gone away, but after volatile years (like we experienced last year) that can be slow to ebb. Most of the strength that looks sustainable is happening beneath the surface of the popular benchmarks or beyond the borders of our country. It’s a new year with new...
We're already long some domestic semiconductor stocks via options (the trend is working). However, perhaps we've set our sights too close to home.
International stocks have been on a tear recently, showing even greater strength than the U.S. So maybe we should be looking for the strongest stocks, in the strongest sectors, in the strongest countries?
With this in mind, today's trade takes us to Switzerland.
After falling for four straight months, the US dollar index $DXY is up three days in a row. Whether the near-term dollar strength turns into a more sustained trend is anyone’s guess.
Regardless, risk assets feel the pressure as many areas begin to correct, including precious metals.
Despite this recent selling pressure, we have clear levels to trade against when it comes to Silver and mining stocks.
Before we dive into those critical levels of interest, a friendly reminder…
An overwhelming amount of supply still exists for Gold futures in the 1,924-1,965 zone:
It’s not surprising to witness gold correct below this level, especially since it gained more than 20% off its Nov. low.
In fact, I would be more surprised if gold didn’t pause at this level. I’m not concerned with the selling pressure in Gold.
On the other hand, the next two charts highlight key levels precious metal bulls need to defend.
First up, Silver futures:
I noted a couple weeks ago the bull flag in Silver looked a bit long in the tooth. Fast...