Jeff Macke is the person I go to when it comes to all things Retail and Consumer Brands. He's been doing this longer and better than anyone else I can think of.
November marks the beginning of the best three-month period of the year for stocks and a brand-new NBA season. Moreover, the sportsbooks have priced in my local OKC Thunder as the Western Conference champions.
It's a fantastic time to be alive.
Now is also a great time to take a step back and assess the underlying trends.
Earlier this year, we outlined our Fab 5 Charts for a 2024 equity bull market.
One of the five key groups we selected was homebuilders, which have been on an absolute tear:
If you're living on this planet, credit is everything—it shapes economies and tells us whether we’re in a "risk-on" or "risk-off" environment.
And there's no better indicator of investor sentiment than the bond market.
With over $140 trillion traded daily, bonds are the largest asset class in the world, spanning all around the globe, from retail investors to governments.
One way we use bonds for information is by analyzing credit spreads as a signal for stress in the market.
Right now, credit spreads are not warning of elevated risk, they are doing just the opposite. Giving bulls the green light.
Credit spreads are tightening and hitting multi-year highs when comparing junk bonds to treasury bonds.
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Welcome to TheJunior International Hall of Famers.
With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.
Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.
This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:
Why does it seem like every time I remind a group of people about the underperformance from Technology stocks, they're always surprised to hear it.
It's like they don't even know that Large-cap Tech stocks have been underperforming for most of the year, and Small-cap Tech has been underperforming for 18 months.
As we inch closer to the election, the "change-of-narrative" plays still hold interest to me -- both as hedges to my overall bullish positioning, and as alpha generators.
Today's trade is in a "junky" solar name that has gotten beaten down with the rest of it's sector as investors are pricing in a Trump victory that would be perceived as bearish for the Solar Industry.
But what if a Trump victory results in an inverse "sell the news" type of event and the selling pressure gets lifted from this sector? Or, better yet, what if the pollsters are wrong (it's happened before!) and Harris comes out victorious? Wouldn't that result in an immediate narrative shift for this sector? And if that happens, junky stocks like today's trade could potentially offer a tremendous amount of alpha.