It's the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?

The near-term direction of US interest rates will play a major role in how market conditions resolve in the coming weeks. This is a chart you want to monitor closely...

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley

Choppy conditions prevail.

Sure, risk appetite is returning as long-duration assets catch a bid.

The ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK, Tesla $TSLA, and even the Emerging Markets Bond ETF $EMB show impressive near-term strength.

Nevertheless, the overall market is still a range-bound mess…

The S&P 500 churns below overhead supply. A decisive downside resolution in the US Dollar Index $DXY has yet to occur. And commodities – at least at the index level – refuse to violate key support levels.

I doubt the markets will clean themselves up in the coming weeks. But if you want insight into the near-term direction of the major asset classes, keep an eye on this one chart…

Here it is – a triple-pane look at the yields on the five-, 10-, and 30-year US Treasury bonds:

It’s all about the...

This is the video recording of the January 26th, 2023, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

1/26/23 2:00 PM ET

Today’s note has nothing to do with trading, and absolutely everything to do with trading.

Let me explain.

The solutions to trading problems aren’t always found when we’re trading. In fact, I would argue most of the time they aren’t. At least not for me.

Have you ever been in the shower, on a walk with your dog, or driving your car when suddenly you were struck with a fantastic idea or an important “to-do”? Not just about trading, but about anything?

Happens to me all the time.

Even worse, it seems that whenever I’m struck with a great idea or a prompt for an errand I need to do, they come in waves. The brainstorming just flows ideas out of my head in a torrent that makes it impossible for me to remember everything. And it always seems to happen when I have no ability to write it down.

So I just try to remember it all until later when I can either perform the task, send that email, write that blog post, make that trade, or adjust that strategy.

But this act of remembering prevents me from moving forward when all I’m trying to do is balance the spinning plates of thoughts running in my head.

Remembering consumes far...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was a nice pop this morning, with $SPY trading as high as 404.

I put on a long position in SPY last night at 401. So it was a nice and very welcome good-morning gift.

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

One of the most remarkable philosophical pieces of all time is Plato's "The Allegory of the Cave." It's commonly applied in various ways in today's society, making it one of the most significant analogies to come out of the field.

The story follows a group of people chained underground as prisoners, only knowing the wall in front of them and nothing else.

Behind them is a fire, and between the prisoners and the fire is a walkway. As people move on the walkway, the prisoners see the shadows cast on the wall.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Today's Hot List is another short one.

The only 13G on our list was filed by Pura Vida Investments LLC, which revealed an initial stake of 5.62% in Quanterix Corporation $QTRX.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market is back to happy mode.

$SPY is trading above 400, and all is well.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This morning $SPY broke below its 200-day moving average at 395.50 and then managed to come back above it.

It shrugged off $MSFT’s earnings report last night.

I call it the comeback kid! 

Chinese content? What?

Look, I don't know. I just follow Price. They are all just letters and numbers to me. If it trades, it's liquid, and there's a good technical setup -- that's all I need.

It just so happens that this particular company is engaged in creating Chinese internet content. Ok.

But man oh man do I like the potential reward-to-risk setup here so let's get straight to the point...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread was unchanged last week, remaining just beneath the level that in the past has signaled  full embrace of equities and the opportunity for sustained stock market strength.    

Why It Matters: Excessive optimism can signal elevated risks for equities, but since 2015, virtually all of the net gains for the S&P 500 have come when II bulls have exceeded bears by 18% or more. For the past two weeks the spread has been stuck at 16.9%. The absence of bulls and a sustained re-building in optimism over the past year have been a headwind for stocks. The shift from excessive pessimism to elevated optimism is typically when stocks do their best, but this cycle investors have been slow to embrace rally attempts. With stocks strong out of the gate to start 2023, the lack of optimism is notable. If 2023 is not going to follow the path of 2022, investor attitudes about stocks will need to change. 

In this week’s Sentiment Report we take a closer look at...