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Abdiel Capital Reports Large APPN Purchase

January 17, 2023

The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Abdiel Capital Management LLC, which reported a purchase worth roughly $8.7 million in Appian Corporation $APPN.

The hedge fund now has an ownership stake of nearly 12%.

All Star Charts Crypto

A Structural Shift

January 17, 2023

What a week, eh?

Bitcoin had its best week in two years, with the orange coin rallying 22%. Many coins followed suit, with names like Solana gaining a whopping 60% last week.

This move was merely a continuation of the momentum we pointed out at the beginning of last week, with many of our internal breadth metrics moving into bullish conditions.

 

 

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

January 16, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Bitcoin Bounces Back!

Bitcoin has been on an absolute tear, gaining roughly 25% since last week and booking seven consecutive up-days. Not only is price reclaiming its prior cycle highs from 2017, but momentum (as measured by the 14-day RSI) is registering its highest reading in two years. As shown in the table, price has also reclaimed its 200-day moving average, ending the second longest streak on record spent below it over the course of 2022.

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Follow the Flow (01-16-2023)

January 16, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

All Star Charts Gold Rush

Gold Rush: Gold Rings the Bell

January 16, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The NYSE might be closed today, but futures markets are open.

And while the volume remains low during US trading hours, it hasn’t stopped Gold futures from revisiting a critical level.

Gold currently challenges a price level engrained in goldbugs’ minds worldwide…

The prior commodity supercycle peak!

Check out the chart of Gold futures:

 

It’s back at the scene of the crime – the 2011 high at approximately 1,924. Those former highs mark the height of the prior commodity supercycle (as far as Gold’s concerned) and the ideal level to have exited long positions. Not many sold the top, of course, reinforcing its psychological significance. 

Twice bulls have managed to push price above that critical level. And twice, those rallies failed to produce sustained uptrends. 

This is a logical level for Gold to pause and digest its recent gains. Especially when we consider gold has risen more than 18% off its November lows. Nevertheless, gold mining stocks are catching a bid.

First, the PHLX Gold Index $XAU reclaimed a crucial shelf of former highs, hinting at a new...

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

January 16, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

  • This week, our macro universe was positive, with 85% of our list closing higher with a median return of 2.00%.
  • Oil $CL was the winner, closing with an 8.26% gain.
  • The biggest loser was the Volatility Index $VIX, with a weekly loss of -13.16%.
  • There was a 7% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 11%.
  • 74% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs, and 45% made...
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Gold Rush: Gold Rings the Bell

January 16, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The NYSE might be closed today, but futures markets are open.

And while the volume remains low during US trading hours, it hasn’t stopped Gold futures from revisiting a critical level.

Gold currently challenges a price level engrained in goldbugs’ minds worldwide…

The prior commodity supercycle peak!

Check out the chart of Gold futures:

All Star Charts Premium

The Minor Leaguers (01-16-2023)

January 16, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

You know how I know it's not a downtrend?

January 16, 2023

Yesterday we talked about how early the Phlx Gold & Silver Index was in this cycle.

This index of 30 precious metal mining companies was the first of the Gold related stock indexes to break out. This was about a month after Gold Futures confirmed a buy signal for us in early October.

But of the "stock" related indexes, we look to the Phlx Gold & Silver Index as a leader. It certainly acts like one.

And do you know how I know it's not a downtrend?

Look at its components. Each column represents a different moving average ranging from the 5-day...

Bitcoin Dow Theory Signal

January 15, 2023

Back in the late 1800s Charles H. Dow wrote down all of his Tenets about the market in the Wall Street Journal.

These articles ultimately became known as Dow Theory.

One of the basic tenets that many are familiar with is the confirmation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (which was simply known as the Railroad Average when Charlie was around).

If one of the two indexes is making new highs and the other is rolling over, something is wrong, and the trend is likely changing.

Now, if one of the two indexes is making new lows within an ongoing downtrend, and the other is already putting in higher lows, that bullish divergence is evidence of a change in trend.