We did it.

We've flipped the book long.

With Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH reclaiming their prior-cycle highs, we even went as far as arguing that this recent move represents a structural regime shift for the asset class.

In our view, both the short and intermediate-term trends have now definitively shifted higher.

This comes within the context of a slew of risk-on developments in traditional markets.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We're hovering around the $SPX 4,000 level, and we consolidated nicely yesterday.

Time will tell if this market needs a rest or we continue higher sooner versus later.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville filed his first Periodic Transaction Report of the year.

Sen. Tuberville disclosed the purchase of Barrick Gold Corporation $GOLD for an amount between $15,000 and $50,000.

This week we're looking at stock from Technology Products and Services sector.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

This is the video recording of the January 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market consolidated most of the day.

$SPY tested its 200-day moving average a few times down at 396.90 and managed to hold. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Perhaps you’ve noticed that I don’t use moving averages.

For starters, I don’t like the way they look.

They muddy the pristine waters of price. And if I can't pick up on the underlying trend by looking at price action, then god help me.

Regardless, I do my best to stay open-minded. Everyone has their own process. Mine works for me, but that doesn’t make it superior by any stretch.

So, when Grant @GrantHawkridge dropped a US Dollar Index $DXY moving average crossover study in our analyst Slack chat last weekend, I couldn’t resist.

It wasn’t because it highlighted the “death cross” (when a 50-day moving average falls below a longer-term 200-day average), which always stirs a great deal of excitement.

Nor was it what his study suggests for the dollar in the coming weeks and quarters. 

Rather, it’s what it implies for US stocks.

Check out the chart of the DXY with a 50-day (blue line) and a 200-day simple moving average (red line):

...

Look, I get it.

Maybe you have some long-term holdings showing significant gains that you don’t want to pay taxes on. But you want to squeeze some additional income out of these positions because either you’re greedy (fine) or you want to practice responsible risk management (a better reason).

That’s fine. Go ahead and continue selling covered calls from your yacht. You do you.

This post is aimed at the rest of you knuckleheads who seem to think entering covered call trades as tactical short-term plays is a productive use of your time and capital.

Yes, you! You know who you are.

Let me show you two pictures.

The shorter-term risk indicators have teased the possibility in recent weeks, but now for the first time in a year, our longer-term Risk Indicator has moved into Risk On territory.

More Context: This risk indicator is made up of 20 (intermarket and intramarket) ratios that pair various risk on and risk off assets. It ebbed and flowed over the course of 2022 but remained in Risk Off territory all of last year. Paired with the turn higher in our net new high advance/decline line, this is evidence of an improving backdrop for risk assets. These are not discrete signals (like so many breadth and momentum thrusts) but are continuous indicators of the environment in which we, as investors, are operating. 

I have long leaned on breadth thrust signals in my work. But with more and more of them popping up all the time, it is now a case of thrust but verify. In contrast to what we saw last year, our risk indicators and the new high vs new low data are providing important confirmation of market strength (as...

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today: