From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The minutes from the May FOMC meeting were released this week, leading to renewed “will they or won’t they” discussions about potential rate hikes later this year. 

I’m old enough to remember when FOMC minutes weren’t really a thing. I liked it better then. I also preferred when Fed officials (both Board Governors and Regional Bank Presidents) were rarely seen, and even more scarcely heard. But I digress… 

When thinking about where rates have gone in the past and where they could go in the future, it’s helpful to remember the context of the Fed’s dual mandate (stable prices and full employment). The last three tightening cycles all began with lower inflation & higher unemployment rates than we have now.

We had a resting GTC order filled to take us out of a position for a scratch in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

"WAGMI," we've all heard it.

Short for "we're all going to make it," it's the mantra of crypto natives that paints an image of a better future.

As positive as this group expression may seem, it can also be viewed from the lens of a profound juxtaposition.

At its roots, WAGMI represents a deep contrast between the message of hope and the tragic reality of the lives of crypto natives.

We’re making an adjustment to an existing position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio today.

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.

The largest insider buy on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Jan Barta of Pale Fire Capital.

Barta revealed an additional purchase of roughly $5.3 million in Groupon $GRPN as he continues to increase his position in the stock.

For this week's trade, we're buying a $CVX October 180/200 Bull Call Spread for approximately $6.50 here. This means we're long the 180 calls and short an equal amount of the 200 calls for a net debit.

Get the full details, risk management procedures and targets for this trade here:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Fear and concern are at the tip of every investor's tongue, yet their eyes remain on the market. For all the pessimism suggested by sentiment surveys, there’s still a great deal of hope as the desperate search for the bottom continues. Yes, put call ratios are on the rise but that’s mostly driven by falling call activity as last year’s speculative exuberance evaporates. Also, investors continue to favor equities over more defensive assets such as bonds and cash despite what they say. Caution remains warranted until attitudes change or market participants are forced to avert their gaze out of disgust. After we see evidence of improved price action (and likely a series of breadth thrusts), accumulated pessimism becomes fuel for a rally, but the timing of that turn is anybody’s guess at this point.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Contrarian Positioning Is To Go Long Bonds

With all the focus on sentiment indicators, it seems like being a contrarian right now is all the...

Back on February 2nd, we initiated a long-term bullish bet in Chevron $CVX January 2024 150-strike calls. You can read all about our thinking at the time here. In short, we were of the belief that a big breakout in the energy sector was appearing likely.

As you can see from this updated chart, our bet proved to be prescient. We've already taken back our original risk capital in this trade when we sold half of our position on March 2 at double what we originally paid. That has given us the super power to continue holding the remaining half position until now, achieving more gains.

While we still continue to our remaining January 2024 calls, the chart action suggests to us that another leg higher in $CVX may be imminent. And with the big round number price level -- $200 -- dangling above, we think there's an opportunity to make an additional tactical bet to augment our current gains in this position.

We're making an adjustment to an existing position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio today: