Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs that did not make the market-cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more -- but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
Before we get into it, let's take a look at how our International Hall...
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Crude oil bulls are back in town!
They kicked the year off by pushing price back above 76 and reclaiming the upper bounds of a multi-year base. Oil is the most important commodity in the world, so it’s hard to overstate just how bullish fresh seven-year highs would be.
But we’re not quite there yet. We still need to take out the fall highs.
The 76 level marks the former 2018 highs and the breakout from a massive reversal pattern. Buyers ran into an overwhelming amount of supply here during the back half of 2021. When they did manage to reclaim those former highs, it was short-lived, and the move quickly failed.
The stock market’s reaction to this week’s sharp rise in bond yields has intensified talk of a durable shift in long-term equity leadership, within the US as well as on a global basis. That discussion leads to questions about the best way to visually represent such shifts and what relationships we want to keep our eyes on for evidence that such a shift is indeed taking place. In terms of shifting US leadership, you could do a lot worse than the ratio between the old AMEX Composite (technically now it is the NYSE Mkt Composite) and the S&P 500. The AMEX Composite has less of a mega-cap, tech-sector focus than does the SP& 500. S&P 500 leadership peaked in the late 1990’s and this was followed by a decade of relative strength out of the AMEX. The following decade was again dominated by the S&P 500, but over the past year, the AMEX has perked up and looks ready to wear the leadership mantle again. Getting above its June and November highs versus the S&P 500 would be strong evidence that it is ready for that role. Despite carnage elsewhere to begin 2022, the AMEX Composite closed at a new high as recently as...
The most speculative areas of the market peaked in Q1 of 2021 and have been under pressure ever since. It’s not just IPOs and SPACs. Areas like biotech, social media, and online retail have completely fallen out of favor too.
Many of the stocks that have been selling off were among the top performers off the COVID lows in 2020. Some of these former leaders are in 60% to 70% drawdowns today.
What a difference a year can make!
Now that we’re getting closer and closer to the first rate hike, the prevailing opinion seems to be that these stocks will remain under pressure. As things currently stand, there's not much on the charts to suggest they're ready to turn things around.
On the other hand, some of these industry groups are already more than 30% off of their highs -- and that’s at the index level. Eventually, further downside would be inconsistent with the idea that stocks are in a bull market.
For the health of the overall market, we want to see these stocks stop selling off so aggressively. Despite the volatility this week, there are some signs that this is happening.
The first two days of this week completed a nearly text book Santa Claus rally. Then on Wednesday, it appears the Fed may have stolen his Sleigh and now his reindeer have no idea which way to steer!
This indecision has played out in the options market by raising the risk premiums being asked across a wide sector of index ETFs.
At times like this, I like to go hunting for premium-selling opportunities. And I've got one teed up so lets get to it!
I don't have a lot of faith in people, or media or economists. But bonds are something we certainly take seriously.
There's no bullshit with them.
The biggest players in the world have no choice but to be intimately involved in fixed income markets. So if you're curious which way the pendulum is swinging, you'll be able to see it in bonds.
Here's a quick look at US Interest Rates making new highs - from the 1yr to 10yr yields these are going towards the upper right:
Not the fourth installment released late last year, but the original movie – the one that came out more than 20 years ago.
One important caveat: My son is only 13. The Matrix is an R-rated movie filled with violent action scenes. So I didn’t take the decision to let him watch the movie lightly.
Ultimately, I decided the movie raises some important ideas that I wanted to share with him. I'm not talking about ideas of simulated reality or various theatrical elements. For me, one of the key insights is that by tuning out the noise, we can improve our decision making. By focusing on what matters, we have more time to act. When wisdom combines with clarity of purpose, the seconds seem to tick by more slowly.
This doesn't just happen in the movies. Watch an experienced quarterback engineer a winning touchdown drive in the final two minutes of a football game and you will get a sense of what I mean. They seem to have more time to decide, act, and react than anyone else on the field. Maybe time is indeed passing more slowly for them.
High open interest combined with diminishing implied volatility, increased price stability, and thin futures volume all contribute to a scenario where the probabilities of a long/short squeeze are elevated.
We're still in elevated cash positions and, for the most part, still sitting on the sidelines.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at...