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The Chart Heard Around The World

November 28, 2021

This is the new kid that everyone is talking about.

Small-caps tried to break out this month, after going nowhere since February.

But that attempt failed this week.

And now Small-caps are back in the penalty box:

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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Charts of the Week

November 27, 2021

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

 

 

The Length and Breadth Of It

November 27, 2021

The market has been in a corrective mode for a little over a month. While this correction has been gaining some momentum, we took a look at the breadth internals of the market at this stage to dig a little deeper.

One important factor when the market was making new highs, was a lack of breadth expansion.

Now the important factor when the market is making lows is breadth expansion.

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International Hall Of Famers (11-26-2021)

November 26, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall Of Famers list is composed of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall Of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the 50 largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness. Due to the recent volatility, we’re going to do that today.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this...

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Running With The Bulls

November 26, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Earlier this month, we discussed our outlook for a post-harvest rally, highlighting corn and soybean oil contracts. 

Here’s what we had to say

Cotton and coffee continue to rip. Crude oil and the energy space are grinding higher. Live cattle are breaking out. Even precious metals are starting to catch a bid.

Fast forward to today, and Ags have emerged as the clear leaders over the near term. They’ve been ripping higher while the majority of the commodity space retests critical levels of former resistance and continues to consolidate.

The fact that grains, softs, and livestock are marching higher while their peers are under pressure, tells us this is an area we should focus on for long opportunities. It’s where the relative strength is right now.

When we drill into the ag space, cattle futures continue to stand out. Not only are these some of the stronger contracts in the subgroup -- they are also...

Nothing Good Happens Below 4500

November 26, 2021

Volatility is back!

But is it here to stay? That is the question.

You can see what things looked like coming into Thanksgiving in this week's RPP Report.

But with the prices of many key assets now below critical levels, we wonder if this is just more of a messy market, or the beginning of something bigger.

Here is the S&P500 stuck below this overhead supply from earlier this month, but above former resistance from September.

You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&P500, nothing good happens below 4500:

If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted.

Mystery Chart (11-26-2021)

November 26, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza

*** Click here to read the reveal post for this Mystery Chart ***

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it’s an absolute price chart, other times it’s on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize the price behavior objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…

So, let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

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The Micro Versus The Macro

November 26, 2021

Given the recent volatility over the last few hours, we wanted to quickly send this update ahead of the recording of our weekly conference call to detail what's taken place and to discuss our approach to lower time frames right now.

In yesterday's note, we outlined the following:

The most likely selling event would be driven by derivative volatility through a cascading of long liquidation forced selling pressure. There is certainly a possibility this could take place, with funding still pointing to bullish positioning from speculators, but it looks unlikely with the strength of spot flows supporting the market right now.

This is primarily where we've seen the selling pressure take place, with over $750M of liquidations experienced over the last 24 hours. As much as on-chain spot-buying drives long-term cycles, the derivative markets ultimately get the final say for lower time frames.

[Podcast] Charts, Baseball & Being Nice w/ John Roque

November 26, 2021

In this podcast episode I sit down with one of my favorite technicians of all-time - John Roque. This is one of those people who influenced my thinking very early on. The combination of his simplicity along with sports analogies to describe market behavior made me a huge fan of his right away. This was about 15 years ago.

Since then, you'll here me throw out John Roqueisms all the time. I learned a lot from his way of thinking.

In this conversation we talk about the stock market, Gold, Bitcoin and Tech stocks. John also shares some fun stories about those who inspired him throughout his career and some of the things he’s learned more recently.

This was a lot of fun and a real treat for me.

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (11-25-2021)

November 25, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza 

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our state of the union address, as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes. Our ultimate goal is to discuss the most important themes and developments that are currently playing out in markets around the world.

There's been plenty of action these past few weeks. Let's kick things off with stocks and try to make sense of what we're seeing.

Here's our US equities table:

Let's start with a triple pane chart of mid-caps, small-caps, and micro-caps.

...