From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Since the March lows last year, SMIDs have been the clear leadership group with higher yields as a tailwind. However, this entire relative theme has cooled off as risk assets have consolidated along with interest rates. Considering last year’s major breakdown in Small-Caps relative to Large-Caps signaled lower rates, this is a critical time and place to witness a resolution either way.

From an intermarket perspective, we’ve seen our crucial stock and commodity ratios signal lower rates in the near future. Is this signaling a
relative breakdown in Small-Caps? As always with markets, we need to play the cards we’re dealt. So while the longer-term outlook favors higher yields, we’re paying close attention to this resolution to signal a more immediate directional bias for these relative themes.

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From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza 

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• Our Macro universe turned things around this week as 81% of our list closed higher this week with a median return of 0.94%
• Procyclical Commodities led the bounce as Copper and Crude Oil were the week’s biggest winners up 4.39% and 4.31%, respectively 
• New highs have increased over last week’s dismal performance
• And 74% of the assets on our list are within...

Shifts are taking place for the first time in over a year.

Bitcoin just printed its second consecutive negative monthly candle, which hasn't happened since the Covid crash. Meanwhile, Ethereum was down on the month for the first time since September of last year.

Riding along in the Cryptocurrency space has been the ultimate momentum strategy. As a result, gains have far exceeded any risk asset by a country-mile.

But the same applies to the downside.

In the case where volatility's ramped up as it has, there's nothing wrong at all with sitting on heavy cash positions until a more definitive trend forms. If the history of these digital assets have taught us anything, it's that knowing when NOT to be in the trade puts us in an incredibly advantageous position.

Just take a look at Ethereum's monthly candle:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottoms-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, what we do is simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity - either bullish or bearish... but NOT both.

What we mean by this is that we have options experts, both internally and through our partnerships with TheTradeXchange, whereby we do all the digging through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients, in order to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We weed out all the noise for you in terms of hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What this leaves us with is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind... and they're doing so for one reason only: Because they think the stock is about to move in their...

It's messy out there.

Breakouts are failing all over the place.

In recent weeks, it's been a tough time for any type of trend following strategy. That's because most are not trending, but rather in ranges.

When this sort of action unfolds as it has done, we play an exercise.

That is, we zoom out.

In all this gut-wrenching volatility, let's not forget the extraordinary gains this asset class has achieved over the last few years are astonishing, even after a violent 50% crash.

Consolidation is painful, but it's necessary.

Let's jump into it with a quick look at how the top digital assets performed yesterday:

I can't begin to tell you how many people have approached me in recent weeks laughing about how they're happy I'm back on the Gold train.

Why wouldn't I be? Our gold trades are working.

One thing I learned the hard way in this business is to do less of what's not working and do more of what is.

It sounds too simple but I can't emphasize enough just how important this concept is.

This isn't like a Roulette wheel of randomness. Markets trend. That's why Technical Analysis works, because we're looking for trends.

One thing we know about new lows is that they are not a characteristic of uptrends.

We know this.

So here's an update on that whole Growth vs Value thing: New Monthly closing lows all the way down the cap scale.

Commodities have been a part of the discussion for quite some time. As base metals and precious metals alternate between their outperformance, another commodity is now taking center stage.

Cotton has been on our radar for quite some time, but we've been waiting for a resumption in trend. Much like the equity market, cotton too was stuck in a sideways mess.

Well, it seems like that mess has cleared.

This week we're looking at one long setup in Cement. Commodities and Infrastructure are bouncing from crucial levels. We'd like to look at a name from this segment.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

As Technical Analysts, our primary goal is to identify the trend. If it's headed higher, it's positive. If it's headed lower, it's negative, and if it's stuck in between, it's sideways.

Sounds simple? Well, sort of.

As traders, your primary goal is to make money. Yes, we're all here to learn, but isn't the goal also making money?

Follow the trend, trade/invest accordingly, and book profits.

Sounds simple? Well, not so much.

Risk Management is probably the most important and the most undermined concept in the market. A great plan can turn into a disaster with bad execution. An average plan can turn into a success with good execution. It's the execution of the plan. That's where the magic happens.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Here we are on Friday, and it's been yet another eventful week for the commodity complex.

Steel futures ripped higher. Corn was limit-up on Thursday. Lumber continues to digest its gains with the same volatile fashion it made them in, giving back another 10% on the week.

And then of course there's Dr. Copper which appears to have successfully defended former resistance turned support at its all-time highs from 2011. It's impossible to overstate the importance of how this massive base in Copper resolves.

Bulls definitely don't want this move to evolve into a failed breakout... The 4.50-4.60 zone is the line in the sand. 

As for Energy Markets... Crude Oil making its highest daily close since October 2018 might be the biggest development of all.

We’ve talked a lot about Crude...