From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This week marked the anniversary of Oil busting the theory that there is firm support at $0. Oil is currently trading around $62/bbl, which puts its $100 higher than where it closed on April 20, 2020 (-$38/bbl). Our custom equal-weight commodity index (which is 15% energy and 24% industrials metals, versus 39% & 13%, respectively, in the CRB index) continues to power higher, eclipsing not only its early 2021 peak but the 2012-2014 peaks as well. While Lumber gets a lot of headlines for making new highs - strength in commodities is much broader than that. While this may lead to some concern about rising inflationary pressures, it also says positive things about global growth and the prospects for global equities. You don’t need to be a commodity trader to appreciate & benefit from the current strength in commodities.

Believe it or not, it's not just Apple that makes desktop and laptop computers. I know, some of the newer generations of consumers may be shocked to learn this.

But way back in the Before Times, there was another computer maker that dominated the consumer space and invented novel ways to deliver them to consumers.

These days, they are a long way from the mass market dominance they once enjoyed, but investors in the stock are enjoying the fruits of a resurgence.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I recently came across a conversation about momentum…

I was excited when I first saw it -- but disappointed when it didn't actually go anywhere.

Okay that's a joke. But I did see a momentum discussion. This time, it went somewhere. It even got me thinking about my own experience with momentum when it comes to making investment decisions.

Here's the story: 

Someone on Twitter asked whether momentum investing had a godfather of sorts, an established voice that lends an air of respectability to a discipline. Think about Warren Buffett (and before him, Graham & Dodd) with respect to value investing. There were interesting comments in the thread that followed the initial post and I saw more than a few references to Cliff Asness and the work he has done at AQR. While acknowledging the work he has done with respect to momentum as a strategy, Asness himself referenced several academics who have written on the subject over the past few decades.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

We recently held April’s Monthly Conference Call, which our Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll summarize the call by highlighting 5 of the most important charts/topics we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s dive into it.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @GrantHawkridge

The credit market is overflowing with information. 

We haven’t discussed it too much lately… but that doesn’t mean we aren’t paying close attention.

It would be foolish to overlook it. After all, they call Bond traders the “smart money” for a reason... Right?

We’ve recently discussed the theme and likely implications of how so many major stock market indexes - in both the US and abroad, are hitting very logical levels of overhead supply right now.

We think it’s no coincidence that all of this is occurring at the same time. And you’ll never guess what else…

We’re also seeing this very same behavior from some of the most important Bond Market ratios we track, as many are currently running into crucial inflection points.

This is the video recording of the April 22nd Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche

04/22/21 2PM ET

Over the past month, we've seen agricultural commodities catch a bid as they break out of overhead supply zones and long-term consolidations.

We're tracking some commodities that have been witnessing a sharp move and demand to be noticed. So let's dive right in!

Mustard has been on our radar for some time and a fierce move has come through over the last ten days. The price has absorbed all overhead supply and is zooming away as we speak. The price has been in a sideways trading range for more than seven months and is now on the move. The indicator is in bullish momentum territory, looking good for a move towards 7,900.

We are bullish above the level of 6,200 with a target near 7,900.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

I get asked a lot about why I don't think this is the beginning of a more severe correction.

We've been in the camp that the stock market is a hot mess, particularly in the U.S.

The indexes don't tell the whole story. OK, maybe the Nasdaq does a little...

And we went over all of that on last night's Live Video Conference Call.

But one chart that stands out to me that continues to suggest that...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• Adaptive exposure can stay in harmony with market environment  
• Risk tolerances are dynamic, moving with the market
• Indicators & investors operate across multiple timeframes

The word perspective has multiple definitions. The dictionary we have at our house lists eight. For me, the most relevant of those have to do with seeing the interrelationships of relevant facts and ideas as well as  those that deal with distant time frames & horizons.

When it comes to investing, keeping perspective is the difference between success  and failure. A successful approach to portfolio management can be built on a sturdy three-legged stool of perspective focusing on:

1. Market Environment
2. Investor Risk Tolerance
3. Portfolio Time Horizon

We need to keep in mind how we are making sense of incoming information, how our preferences are changing in light of that information, and how far out in the future we are looking when it comes to how we are positioning our...

Readers of All Star Charts research are no doubt familiar with the team's focus on relative strength. They are often comparing sectors against each other to uncover where hidden strength (or weakness) is hiding out. It's one thing to see how a stock or a sector is performing on absolute -- dollar and cents -- terms. But seeing how investors favor one sector versus another offers important insight into how the marketplace is perceiving risk and opportunity.

This analysis often forms the bedrock of our best discoveries.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Last week, we highlighted the USD testing a critical level against the Rand. This is a theme we've been seeing a lot in a variety of USD crosses recently and will discuss more in a post later this week.

We’re finally beginning to see some resolutions from these key levels, and they're revealing some very valuable information regarding the Dollar’s strength and the likely future direction for the $DXY Index itself.

In this post, we'll take a look at some examples of this theme by showcasing two forex pairs from Northern Europe that are currently breaking down at major inflection points against the USD.

But before diving in, let's set the stage a bit...

What are some of the major developments in G-10 pairs that are driving the US Dollar Index right now?

• EUR/USD appears to be finding support as it retests former resistance at its 12-year downtrend line from above.
• GBP/USD...