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[Podcast] Michael Nauss is Our Kind of Geek

July 13, 2024

When Michael Nauss first sat down at a trading desk, his computer had a keyboard and a screen. But no mouse.

And his screen displayed an order book. But no charts.

Thus began his career as a scalper working the order book, who paid no attention at all to trends or technical analysis. He was simply trying to find spots to buy ahead of large buyers and flip the position out for a quick couple of ticks. Do this a couple hundred times per trading session and perhaps he’d have a successful day.

This was all part of Michael’s journey of learning to walk before he could run. And it is a mantra that sticks with him to this day as he himself continues to learn and helps many others learn the craft of trading.

Michael says: “Learning is often about “UN” learning.“ 

People are frequently drawn to trading by a social media personality or a brokerage advertisement, and they are like moths to the flame of fast riches and early retirement. Then they lose.

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The Hall of Famers (07-12-2024)

July 13, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Crowdstrike and Paypal.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

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Will Lumber Futures Shore Up the Stock Market Rally?

July 12, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Today’s analyst meeting was one broken record after another as we ripped through the most important charts on the market.

Not a top, never hit oversold…

Not a top, never hit oversold…

There’s a raging bull market on Wall Street right now. 

But the fun and games will come to a screeching halt if the following chart rolls over.

Check out the economically sensitive Home Construction ETF $ITB:

ITB checks both boxes.  It never hit oversold levels and is only a top if it breaks below 97. 

Plus, it’s ripping! 

Of course, we need a decisive resolution above the March high of 116.34 to confirm our bullish bias. 

But if the next bull run has legs, ITB will post new all-time highs. 

That also means lumber futures have to stop falling.

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Will Lumber Futures Shore Up the Stock Market Rally?

July 12, 2024

Today’s analyst meeting was one broken record after another as we ripped through the most important charts on the market.

Not a top, never hit oversold

Not a top, never hit oversold

There’s a raging bull market on Wall Street right now. 

But the fun and games will come to a screeching halt if the following chart rolls over.

 

All Star Charts Crypto

📅 Fading the Breakdowns

July 12, 2024

The lackluster action in crypto markets has continued. This is even in the face of yesterday's action that saw the US dollar continue it sell off as small-caps and market breadth saw its most productive day the entire year.

All Star Charts Crypto

📈 The Mt Gox FUD

July 12, 2024

A few weeks ago, stories of Mt Gox were once again reappearing as the cold wallet associated with the defunct exchange had began its process of distributing the coins out to customers.

Just like the SEC when it comes to approving ETFs, Mt Gox has repeatedly pushed the deadline ahead numerous times. In fact, the entire Mt Gox saga has become a classic piece of FUD throughout Bitcoin's history that has created a lot of fear among traders and investors.

The simple idea is that there is over $9B worth of Bitcoin that are being distributed to Bitcoin holders for the first time in a decade. Considering the massive profits they're sitting on, many people have pondered whether there will be a mass exodus of investors taking profits and hitting sell.

While this would no doubt be a headwind, I want to take a step back and put this all into context. It's important that as this story develops over the coming months we let data inform our decisions, not emotions.

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Bonds Are Ready to Rip 

July 11, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Will the Fed finally cut interest rates?

We can’t say for sure… 

All that matters is what the market thinks. And following Powell’s testimony this week, investors are increasing their September rate-cut bets.

Let’s review a few of our recent bond trades, as US treasuries could rip in the coming weeks.

Our entry point for T-bond futures was 117’27:

Price triggered a buy signal last month, but the breakout has been far from decisive.

If you haven’t taken a long position, you can move your risk level to the May 15 close, trading against  118’08.

Or, you can wait for buyers to take out 120’12 (the June 14 close).

Entry tactics aside, we’re targeting last December’s high of 125’30.