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Young Aristocrats (March 2023)

March 9, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money." Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical analysis to the mix,...

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The Short Report (03-08-2023)

March 8, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

[Options] Materially Sideways?

March 8, 2023

Today's trade is going to leverage the rising volatilities introduced into the stock market this week thanks to testimony from the Federal Reserve Chairman (I've been told).

When markets get dicey and volatility rises, I like to look at my universe of Sector ETFs and choose one that is both displaying higher relative options prices than its peers and looks set up for rangebound trading action over the next 3-5 weeks.

An ETF near the top of my list is the Materials sector ETF $XLB. We're going to bet on the recent sloppy trading action to continue sideways for a bit, and we're going to sell a delta-neutral spread to collect premium and position ourselves to earn the decay.

March Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways

March 7, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our March Monthly Strategy Session on Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

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A Raging Dollar Revives Last Year’s Challenges

March 7, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What year is it? 

Is it 2023 or 2022? Because it’s starting to feel like last year all over again…

No, Will Smith hasn’t slapped anyone (that I’m aware of). And I’m confident Bennifer 2.0 is going strong (solely based on Superbowl commercials).

But that’s not my concern. Here’s what does have my attention: the dollar and rates

These were big themes last year – rising in tandem – and continue to be as we head into March.

It shouldn't come as a surprise as the next chart reveals the crux of the story…

Check out the overlay chart of the US dollar index $DXY and the US 10-year yield $TNX with a rolling 126-day correlation in the lower pane:

Notice the consistent positive correlation between the US benchmark rate and the dollar since fall 2021. It all began as Federal Reserve officials swept...

Know What Game To Play

March 7, 2023

Last night was our Live Conference Call that I host at the beginning of each Month.

It gives us an opportunity to take a step back and identify the direction of primary trends.

This is helpful, because without understanding the environment we're in, how could we possibly pick and choose which tools and strategies to incorporate?

This step often gets forgotten about by investors.

Many would rather just shove their strategy down the market's throat whether it makes sense for that environment or not.

I find that foolish.

One chart that I thought told an important story ...

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Under the Hood (03-06-2023)

March 6, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended March 3, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s a lot of overlap.

The bottom line is there are a...

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Follow the Flow (03-06-2023)

March 6, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...