From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds are bouncing off key levels of potential support.

For some, it’s a former low. And for others, it’s a downside extension level. Regardless, we can all rejoice that bonds have stopped falling.

That doesn’t mean we’re rushing out to buy Treasuries. Instead, it signals a constructive start to a potential bottoming process for the bond market and relief from downside volatility.

Let’s check out the charts!

First up is the long-duration Zero Coupon ETF $ZROZ:

ZROZ has rebounded above its former 2014 lows, posting a potential failed breakdown. Risks are to the upside above 82 with potential resistance at the shelf of former lows around 100.

It’s a similar story for the Treasury Bond ETF $TLT:

T-bonds reclaimed their former 2014 lows on Wednesday. As long as TLT holds above 101.50, our tactical...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Monday night we held our November Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each

Let’s get right into it!

After we got past sharing each others' Thanksgiving dinner menus, wine pairings, and recipe swaps, the All Star Charts gang got back to business this morning hunting for trade ideas.

We arrived at today's idea in a roundabout way:

"Discretionary stocks have been the 'least shitty' performers as of late."

"We're seeing relative strength in 'da homies. [Homebuilders]"

"In that sector, Lennar $LEN is showing the best relative strength relative to the others."

...and that is a taste of how the Thanksgiving sausage is made.

So let's dig into some visuals to highlight what we're seeing.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s time to short the USD. 

Based on the weight of the evidence, our bias for the US dollar has flipped bearish. 

Our first shot at betting on a weaker dollar was successful, as the EUR/USD hit its target earlier in the month. That’s encouraging!

But it’s important to note most dollar pairs are running into logical levels of support or resistance.

Many of these charts are messy at best.

Except the Mexican peso.

In fact, no currency has stood its ground during the dollar's parabolic advance like MXN.

This doesn't have to be complicated.

Is the list of stocks and sectors in uptrends getting longer or is it getting shorter?

Are we seeing more stocks breaking down to new lows, or fewer?

If you can count, then you know the answer.

The question is, are you even willing to count?

This is the video recording of the November 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The most Bullish Time of the Year
• The most Bullish Time of the 4-year Presidential Cycle
• US Dollar vs Stocks Negative Correlation Continues
• Mexican Peso & VIX Relationship
• Euro & British Pound at Key Resistance Levels
• Stocks rallying with stronger GBP
• Fewer stocks making new lows, but waiting for expansion in new highs
• Sentiment for risk assets remains pessimistic
• What Year 3 in Bull Markets Looks Like
• Risk Management Charts: NYSE Comp & Value Line Index
• Relative Strength in SMIDs
• Energy - Still Waiting For A Breakout
• List of Strongest Energy Stocks to Buy
• What the end of the Energy run looks like - Crude Oil Key Levels
• Healthcare Stocks Continue to Lead - Which Ones to Own Now
• Insurance Stocks Lead Financials Higher - List of Buys
• Broker Dealers showing Relative Strength
• Most Important Chart on Earth: XLF & ITB
• CAT & DE are not defensive trades
...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’ve tried the paleo diet. 

I’ve even gone primal, cutting carbs while increasing fats for long periods of time. 

But I haven’t tried the new all-meat-all-the-time lifestyle. 

Whether you’re a full-on carnivore -- or even if you just enjoy a nice steak once in a while -- it’s time to hedge against rising beef costs using the futures markets.

Check out the chart of feeder cattle futures:

Feeder cattle represent weaned calves making their debut at the feed lots. They range from six to 10 months old and tend to weigh between 600 and 800 pounds.

While these young cows still have weight to put on, from the looks of the weekly chart, they’re planning to eat well this holiday season. 

Feeder cattle futures hit our initial target during summer and have since corrected. Despite the recent pullback, the uptrend...