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[Video] Fox Business w/ Charles Payne: S&P500, Small-caps, Rates & Bitcoin

August 1, 2022

Last week I jumped on to Fox Business to talk markets with Charles.

He asked me about S&Ps, Russell2000 Small-caps, US 10yr Yield and Bitcoin.

It's funny, I don't think I've ever agreed this much with a TV anchor in my life.

His Technical Analysis was spot on.

So the setups are certainly there. But I think the catalysts are where we focus. And I believe that continues to be the Dollar and Rates.

Here's the full clip:

Major Changes In Trends

July 31, 2022

Are you watching?

Look what stocks and Crypto do with just a little tiny bit of Dollar weakness.

In fact, US Dollar Index Futures are only down 3.0% off the highs.

And look how stocks have done since the Dollar stopped going up a couple of weeks ago:

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The Hall of Famers (07-29-2022)

July 29, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down 5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 

Then, we sort the remaining names by...

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Gold Doesn’t Care

July 29, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The past two years of sideways chop on the gold chart has been a game of perseverance and pain. 

Gold is a honey badger, attacking a beehive face-first, digging for larvae, and somehow persevering through a thousand bee stings.

That can’t be fun, especially as other areas of the market have experienced explosive trends. But it works for the honey badger.

And it's worked for gold.

Now that commodities and stocks have come under increased selling pressure, the data continues to mount in favor of declining gold prices. 

Precious metals are looking weak. Gold stocks are breaking down on absolute and relative bases. And signs of risk appetite are nowhere to be seen.

But gold doesn’t care.

Before we get into the absolute weakness in gold and other precious metals, let’s review the relative weakness in the mining space.

Here’s a dual-pane chart of the Gold Miners ETF $GDX versus the Gold ETF $GLD and...

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[Premium] Details For August 2022 Monthly Strategy Session

July 29, 2022

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday August 1st @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

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A Classic Intermarket Relationship

July 28, 2022

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s the day after the FOMC announcement, and markets are mixed. They’ve already moved past yesterday’s 75-basis-point hike and are now in the process of pricing in all available data, including the prospects of future Fed policy.    

Instead of getting caught up in the recession chatter and what the Fed might do next, let’s focus on one undeniable fact: The 10-year US Treasury yield $TNX is still at a key inflection point.

I know we’ve been obnoxious about the US dollar and rates. They continue to be two of the most important charts out there. That’s the environment we’re in – plain and simple.

And with the 10-year yield stuck just below a critical shelf of former highs, there’s no better time to remind ourselves of some classic intermarket relationships.

Here’s a chart of the US 10-year yield overlaid with the Metals and Mining ETF $XME with the ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK in the lower pane:

...

What Bitcoin Needs To Thrive

July 28, 2022

Here's your chart of the day.

How can it not be?

It's the answer to the question: "What's it going to take for Bitcoin and Crypto to start doing well again?"

You see this inverse correlation?

Are We Entering Accumulation?

July 28, 2022

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

It's fair to say I used to be a huge nerd.

In high school, I wasn't into sports, drinking, or other normal teenage shenanigans.

As strange as it may seem, I was super passionate about technical analysis. I would use my English periods and lunch times learning fixated on what these charts meant, reading countless blogs, and spending hours learning what technical analysis was on Investopedia.

It's hilarious looking back on it now, but I vividly remember my 16th birthday. I convinced my Dad to buy me a flight to Auckland, so I could go to an investing seminar held by a well-known Kiwi entrepreneur, Jamie Beaton.

What teenager wants tickets for an investing seminar for their 16th birthday?

One story you'll hear often from technicians is that technical analysis opened up finance to them in an intuitive way. No longer were they basing their decisions on arbitrary discounted cash flow models or unreliable accounting figures.

Instead, they were following the only driver that moves markets -- money flow.

As I've grown over the years, I've come to a similar conclusion.

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The Short Report (07-27-2022)

July 27, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

Be Grateful for the Losses

July 27, 2022

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

There's no denying the fact that it's been a rough time being a crypto investor lately.

From our work, crypto market participants are closely approaching their maximum pain thresholds.

In real terms, losses realized on-chain reached their highest values going back to 2011. In nominal terms, Bitcoin holders realized the most amount of losses in USD terms in crypto's entire history.

We've gone from 95% of all market participants holding unrealized profits to a measly 50% in the space of a few short quarters.

This is, by most measures, one of the most severe bear markets by loss realization, capital leaving the ecosystem, and contagion among even the largest and most sophisticated of players.

Despite this destruction of wealth, it's important to be grateful for our losses.

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Catching a Rebound in the Pound

July 26, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Anyone can enter a trade. It’s easy. 

But before you step up to the line to place your bet, you must have a plan – a set of rules rooted in risk management to guide you through your trade.

There’s no way to enter and manage a trade if you don’t know where you’re right, where you’re wrong, and where you’re taking profits. Without a plan, your strategy and philosophical approach to the markets don’t matter. 

That brings us to the British pound.

Here’s a chart of the GBP/USD cross:

A few weeks ago, we outlined a short setup in the GBP/USD pair. The pound was breaking down to levels associated with the Brexit sell-off, and we wanted to ride that trend lower.

Around the same time, the EUR/USD reached parity, as the US Dollar Index $DXY hit its highest level since November 2002. "Long dollar, short everything else" was the trade.  

But now that the GBP/USD is back above our risk level around 1.2025, we can’t...