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Silver ETF Hits New All-time Lows relative to the S&P500

July 23, 2022

I remember 2010-2011 like it was yesterday.

Precious metals were all the rage.

Silver miners were the meme stocks of their day.

There was so much money being made in Silver.

And then all that changed.

No one has heard from those silver surfers ever again.

And now here we are watching the Silver ETF $SLV close the week at its lowest price in history relative to the S&P500:

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Will Commodities Find a Floor?

July 22, 2022

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities have been on the ropes for more than a month. As for commodity stocks, they’ve been under pressure since the start of Q2.

But the steep decline in these inflationary assets is beginning to slow – and it couldn’t happen at a more logical place.

The CRB Index and numerous bellwether commodity stocks are digging in and finding support at key levels. Whether these levels hold is anyone’s guess.

But the first step of the base building process is to stop going down. 

Let’s take a look.

First up is the CRB Index:

After a meteoric rise off the pandemic lows, commodities are experiencing their first significant correction in two years.

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International Hall of Famers (07-22-2022)

July 22, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market-cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

Panic Buying Ensues

July 22, 2022

You see what happens when the US Dollar isn't ripping higher every day?

I wasn't making this up.

It's all about the Dollar my friends.

And Dollar Futures aren't even off by that much, just down a couple of points over the past week.

But still, the Dow is up almost 2000 points, Ethereum is up 60% and Active Managers just posted their second highest weekly increase in exposure in the history of the NAAIM survey:

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Buying a Bounce in Bonds

July 21, 2022

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley  

Buying bonds is finally becoming an attractive proposition again.

For months, we’ve noted the lack of confirmation from intermarket ratios such as copper versus gold, regional banks versus REITs, and high-yield bonds versus US Treasuries.

These ratios typically trend in the same direction as interest rates. But this hasn't been the case since last year.

And when we consider that yields are trapped below major resistance zones, we really like the counter-trend opportunity bonds are offering at these levels.

Let’s review a few setups from our Q3 Playbook we like for buying a bounce in bonds.

July Mid-Month Conference Call: 5 Key Takeaways

July 21, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Monday night we held our July Mid-Month Conference Call, which ASC Premium Members can review here.

In this post, we’ll summarize the call by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

Overhead Supply, Everywhere

July 21, 2022

From the Desk of Louis Sykes

Whenever we have any discussion about approaching this market from the long side, we're quickly stumped.

In the current tape, there's just so much supply to work through that there's no reason for getting overly bullish on meaningful time frames.

Go back and look at these infamous retests of supply zones; they are no joke.

Don't be smart money's exit liquidity. At the very least, we want to err on the patient side of things until this supply eventually gets eaten through in some capacity.

A big difference that often differentiates mediocre traders from good ones is the ability to sit tight, wait for a setup to form, and follow the money flow into a position.

Was That A Breadth Thrust?

July 21, 2022

One thing we know about markets is that breadth thrusts tend to cluster together near the beginning of new bull markets.

Breadth thrusts are NOT signs of exhaustion. They are evidence of new trends emerging.

Now, after a few days of strength in stocks and crypto, investors are wondering: Was that a thrust?

Well, almost. But it's not quite there yet.

Here's one that's close. We're looking at the % of stocks in the S&P500 making new 20 day highs.

We saw over 40% of stocks hit new 20 day highs this week. We're looking for 55% to categorize this one as a true breadth thrust:

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2 to 100 Club (07-20-2022)

July 20, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Chart of the Day: 2 Important Bellwethers

July 20, 2022

There are many examples of important Indexes and Sector ETFs that are retesting key former highs, the 2018 peak in particular.

You can see it in Small-caps, Financials, European Indices, Bitcoin/Ethereum and many others. We discussed all of these on this week's live Premium Conference Call, and also in our Q3 Playbook to Profit.

But you can also see these important retests in the bellwethers.

Here are two of the most important on the planet, one representing Industrials and the other Financials - 2 key sectors in America.