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Most New Highs in 3 years

November 7, 2024

The market has spoken.

They either love Donald Trump as your President. Or maybe it's that they're just happy the election is over.

Either way, this consolidation has now resolved in the direction of the underlying trend: Up.

In fact, yesterday we saw the most amount of stocks on the NYSE hitting new 52-week highs that we've seen in years.

NYSE Composite

Breadth expansion is not evidence of deteriorating market participation. It's by definition, the exact opposite of that.

More and more stocks and sectors making new highs is something you historically see in bull markets. So this is perfectly normal.

Betting Markets Got it Right

November 6, 2024

As expected, Trump won by landslide. It was never even close. 

The public markets and the betting markets had it right. 

The pollsters either got it wrong or they just lied to you. But neither of those is acceptable.

I never trusted those weirdos anyway, because why would I?

The way I learned it was that it's not about what they say, but about what they do. Money talks. And the money was right again.

In this case, the market even underestimated the wide margin of victory in last night's election. And the markets have adjusted accordingly.

Dow Futures are up another 1200 points this morning, after putting up a 500 spot during yesterday's session. 

Bitcoin is up 5000 points to new all-time highs this morning

Tesla is up 12% and the Trump SPAC $DJT is up 30%.

So even through the betting markets got the President right, the Tradfi markets hadn't quite priced it all in yet, as we're seeing over the past 24 hours.

Here's the thing: None of us know what the market is going to do. That's the beauty of all this. We are working with incomplete information. And we know that going in. It's ok. 

Tech Stocks Keep Losing

October 31, 2024

Why does it seem like every time I remind a group of people about the underperformance from Technology stocks, they're always surprised to hear it.

It's like they don't even know that Large-cap Tech stocks have been underperforming for most of the year, and Small-cap Tech has been underperforming for 18 months.

Is this not common knowledge?

Amazon, Apple & Bitcoin

October 29, 2024

Bitcoin is moving this week and is already working on a breakout to new all-time highs.

Amazon reports earnings this Thursday, and is also attempting to break out above its prior cycle's peak to go on to new all-time highs.

Apple already broke out above its 2021 top, and has already been making new all-time highs for months. 

Apple's breakout and extension to new highs, in my opinion, is setting the stage for Amazon and Bitcoin to do the same.

Stocks Price In Trump Victory

October 28, 2024

This is NOT a political post.

So if you're one of these sensitive types who is just too mentally weak to put your politics aside when making decisions about the market, then you're in the wrong place Karen. 

For those of you who can be adults and actually focus on data and facts, here are some thoughts that might help you put the next couple of weeks in perspective.

At this point, I think it's pretty clear that the market has fully priced in a second trump presidency.

Here's a look at the betting markets showing the red line (trump) moving very aggressively to the upper right of the chart, while the blue line (harris) has been moving to the lower right of the chart.

Ignoring Seasonal Trends

October 27, 2024

The best 3 month period of the year begins this week.

We know this.

But to me, the bigger question is how stocks did during what is historically the worst time of the year?

Remember how September and October are supposed to be terrible for stocks?

Well they weren't.

In fact, stocks rallied during September and October. All the major U.S. indexes were up.

Now we enter the Best 3 months: November - January. 

Here's what that looks like:

All Star Charts Premium, All Star Charts Gold Rush

Lightbulbs, Bubbles and The Man Who Wanted to Kill Me

October 24, 2024

In 2015 I was an entrepreneur, had my last knee surgery, and was still riding professionally from time to time—until my body finally gave out. 

I was also on the verge of starting my own fund while working for another one. 

In other words, I was busy.

My trading signals back then were based on 10-month highs which reflects how busy I was. 

We saw a new 10-month high by the end of the year, and that marked the beginning of one of the most legendary trends in financial history. 

Stocks, Business and Meme Tokens

October 24, 2024

I just got done with 2 days at Stocktoberfest in Coronado, CA - right across the bridge from downtown San Diego.

Every time I'm back there I think about all fun times we've had in Coronado over the years and all the stories from the past.

It's important to remember how we got here if we have any chance of moving forward and building on top of everything that we already have today.

This community is special. Our predecessors didn't have any of this.

The fact that I can fly out there with my friends, to one of the most beautiful places on the planet, talk markets, rates, business and meme tokens is an absolute joke.

It's not even fair. 

So it's up to us to take advantage. 

I did.

I got talk retail stocks with Jeff Macke.

Pearlman and I discussed the health benefits of avocados.

We debated market breadth and sector rotation with new people I had never met before.