From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Here’s what happened last week...

A few bad actors used open profits from highly leveraged positions to purchase other assets.

When those highly leveraged positions turned...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US Treasuries are sticking a bullish reversal – an admirable feat following an unforgettable selloff.

If you aren’t buying bonds...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Will the Fed finally cut interest rates?

We can’t say for sure… 

All that matters is what the market thinks. And following Powell’s testimony this week, investors are...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Chop, chop, chop…

Yields on sovereign debt are chopping sideways across the globe.

The US, France, Germany, Spain, and UK benchmark rates are well below their respective 2023...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Mark it, dude.

We have another bearish divergence calling strike three on the stock market rally…

High-yield bonds $HYG versus US Treasuries $IEI.

Check out the HYG/IEI...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Nasdaq is ripping to new all-time highs. NVIDIA’s market cap is surpassing the three-trillion-dollar mark. And...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

G7 central banks are cutting rates – first Canada and now the European Union.

Will the Federal Reserve follow suit in the coming months?

Investors seem to think so…

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

No matter how you slice it, bonds are stuck in a downtrend.

Perhaps bonds are carving out a tradeable low. If so, we have...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Rates are rolling over… 

And bonds are catching a bid.

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

So far, the dollar-yen is playing its part with a little help from Tokyo.

Falling dollar, falling rates, falling...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Goldielocks’s soft landing is proving sticky.

Commodities are outperforming stocks and bonds. Interest rates...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Failed breakouts and trading ranges dominate the charts.

It’s a mixed-up, messy market...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Can we all give the rate cut debate a break?

Everyone is obsessing over the Fed’s rate cut plans. Meanwhile, interest rates...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Fed abides.

Three rate cuts remain the base case for 2024. Everyone had this scenario penciled in, including the bond market.

The...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

A risk-on revival has captivated the markets.

Investors are rising to their feet…

They’re buying stocks...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US Treasuries are taking a back seat to risk assets.

Bond market volatility is declining. Credit spreads are...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to rule the markets with an iron fist, mercilessly punishing any who doubt his supreme will. 

Or maybe I should stop daydreaming at my desk. 

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The FOMC stuck to its script this week, kicking the can and keeping rates steady.

Everyone was expecting the news. But the market wasn’t expecting Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (the man...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

High-yield bonds are printing fresh highs relative to US Treasuries – signs of a healthy risk appetite. 

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Inflation is proving sticky.

So what?

Stocks remain buoyant.

And bonds – the largest market in the world – continue to reveal...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US treasuries finished 2023 with a bang, hitting our initial targets before Christmas.

But the long-bond trade is losing...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

JC asked me how far I thought interest rates would pull back during a recent internal meeting.

The question caught me off guard since I trade bonds, not interest rates. I know...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Last month’s bond rally has legs.

Long-duration bonds have gone from printing multi-month highs to reclaiming their March pivot lows in just a few weeks.

So, let’s revisit...