Ari Wald is always one of my favorite Technical Analysts. Him and I were trained around the same time so we look at the market in a very similar way. Today Ari is the Head of Technical Analysis at Oppenheimer in New York and we're very lucky to have him on the podcast. If you're interested in learning more about Ari, go back and listen to his guest appearance in Season 1 (EP 2). In this episode, Ari and I discuss the current state of the US Stock Market. Included in the analysis are breadth measurements, important levels, smoothing mechanisms and sector rotation. Him and I can talk forever about this stuff so the time felt like it flew by. We covered a ton of material in a very short period of time. I hope you enjoy this one as much as I did!
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about the recent strength in Gold, even in the face of a Dollar that has yet to start falling. After Thursday and Friday's turn around, I think it's finally time for the Dollar to weaken. The way I see it, the relative strength we've seen in Gold was a heads up that the Dollar is set to fall. The correlation between Japanese Yen and Gold Miners on a relative basis is the intermarket relationship that stands out the most.
I've been a fan of Tony Dwyer's work for a long time. Those of you who know me see me approach the market from a top/down global macro and intermarket perspective. Tony starts his process in a similar way at Cannacord Genuity and Dwyerstrategy.com. When we're talking about the next direction for stocks, we both focus on other assets like credit to help identify big trends. We look at the behavior of commodity and currency markets to make decisions in equities. I thought this was a really fun conversation. I particularly enjoyed Tony's comparisons to 1995 and what was going on then with respect to the President's public issues, interest rates, precious metals and the US Dollar. This podcast could have gone on forever if we let it, but we kept it short and concise so we could get to the point quickly.
Wednesday morning I outlined the charts we were watching ahead of the Fed Decision and what we would need to see before getting out of the way and reevaluating our bullish Equities and US Interest Rates thesis.
Today I want to look at those same charts and note what's changed and how we're moving forward.
As part of our Institutional Top 10 Charts report on February 21st, we wrote about why Litecoin was leading the Cryptocurrency regime change.
Several weeks later on April 3rd, we followed-up on that call by noting the improving price action of Bitcoin and Ethereum and suggesting a long-term bottom was likely in for the Crypto space.
Today we're updating our outlook for global markets and providing ideas to profit in the second half of 2019.
Part 1 of this playbook will provide our perspective on all four asset classes and update our views on the major themes within India that we're paying attention to.
James Brodie started out auditing for Arthur Andersen and did not particularly enjoy it. In the early 1990s he started to learn about derivatives at the largest bank in the world before ultimately moving to Credit Suisse. He's lived in London, Singapore, New York and Tokyo trading currencies for both the banks and proprietary and then started his own hedge fund. James is also on the Board of the CMT Association. I really enjoyed the advice he gives about what he learned from 2 massive losses he's taken throughout his career. James is a big fan of behavioral finance and we talk about different studies where we've learned that the better traders actually have more losing trades than winning trades. Currently James is watching Gold, EURJPY and US Interest Rates and talks about how he wants to trade them. This was a fun conversation where we covered a lot of things.
This is one of my favorite things to do: Forget everything that happened in the first half of the year and start from scratch. It doesn't matter what we did or how we felt in early 2019. It's irrelevant. We're moving forward. This is my Q3 2019 Playbook.
Here is the video from my BNN Bloomberg interview this week. We talk about the implications of a weaker US Dollar, including what that would do to stocks, emerging markets, metals and others. I've been waiting for it all year. But think about it. We've already seen some of the things we would expect to see in a weaker Dollar environment. Gold strong, for example, and an inability for the Euro to go lower. So for me, I think this Dollar fall is just getting started.