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[Premium] How Do Commodities And Currencies Fit Into Today's Environment?

October 4, 2017

You guys know how I feel about equities. We've been on the right of the trade while all the gloom-and-doomers and noisemakers are pulling their hair our of their heads trying to figure out why stocks won't fall. To me, it's been fairly clear: Stocks are in uptrends and that's what stocks in uptrends do, they go up. This has been the trend globally, domestically, large-caps, small-caps, you name it. Talk about breadth expansion, I couldn't tell you the last time I saw this much broad participation out of equities. I encourage you to go through the Chartbook and look through all of the International Stock Indexes, U.S. Averages, Sectors, Dow Components, Transportation Components and additional...

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[Premium] Weekend Observations

October 2, 2017

A lot of people seem to be bearish of stocks. Some think they can go higher. But I think they can still go a lot higher. This was the point that I was making on our Conference Call 3 weeks ago. The information coming in since then continues to confirm all of the things we wanted to see. While I was pounding the table to be buying I also pointed to a group of things we wanted to see happen to make sure we were in the right direction. This included US Bank Stocks rallying with US Interest Rates, and Gold and Bonds falling. We wanted to see Europe break out along with U.K., rather than rolling over creating a big mess out there. Nikkei needed to recover and stay in a bullish range in momentum. Every single one of these things happened. So yes, I absolutely think we can still go a lot higher in stocks.

From an asset allocation standpoint, one chart that has been an important one in my eyes is how US Stocks are doing against competing asset classes, bonds and Gold in particular. If stocks are in the bull market that we keep claiming they're in, then there...

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[Premium] Taking A Hard Look At The Fresh Monthly Charts

September 30, 2017

I can't tell you guys how important it is to stop whatever you're doing and take a step back. It's so easy for us to get caught up in the day to day noise and forget about the underlying trends in the market. We're human. We're built to be this way. But recognizing this flaw is an important step in correcting it and trying to benefit from the fact that others are unaware. One of my favorite ways to do this is to look through a series of Monthly Candlestick Charts at the end of every month. Remember, we don't want to look at these mid-month as candles are incomplete. It is the final results that we are most concerned with.

We want to use this bigger picture strategy to identify the directions of the underlying trends in the market. This goes for all markets: Stocks, both U.S. and Globally, Interest Rates, Precious Metals, Energy, Currencies, etc. This is how we know what the trends are so we can then go to our weekly and daily charts to look for more tactical opportunities within those ongoing trends. This is a very important element to our top/down approach.

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[Premium] The Most Important Breakout In Years!

September 22, 2017

We talk about a lot of different markets here and we use a lot of different information to come up with a thesis. We look at International Stock Markets, Interest Rates, Sector Rotation, Individual Stocks, Breadth Measurements, Currencies, Commodities and an endless supply of Intermarket Ratios. But today I want to talk about a breakout that we've been waiting for now for some time.

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[Premium] Breakdown of All 30 Components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average

September 9, 2017

One of the best ways to get a gauge of the strength or weakness in the U.S. Stock Market is to go through all of the stocks in the indexes. Every week I rip through all 500 stocks in the S&P500 on both weekly and daily timeframes. This works well for 2 reasons: 1) it gives me a great idea of how the entire market looks collectively, but it also allows me to find individual risk vs reward opportunities throughout the market. It works great for both.

For people who simply don't have the time, or interest, to get that deep into market analysis, I find the Dow 30 review to be really helpful. If you take a look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 100 years and overlay it with the S&P500, they look pretty much the same. So if their correlations are that high, then going through the Dow 30 components on both weekly and daily timeframes is a much more efficient use of time.

First of all, these are 30 of the most important stocks in America, so that by definition makes them 30 of the most important in the world. Second, we want to take a weight-of-the-evidence approach here and ask ourselves, Are there more good ones or bad ones? ...

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[Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Monday September 12th at 7PM ET

September 6, 2017

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.

We've been bullish towards US and Global Stocks as they remain in strong uptrends on any sort of intermediate-term time horizon. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. We will go over a multi-timeframe approach on this conference call where we will start with the longer-term and then work our way down to more short-term to intermediate-term investing ideas. This will also include other assets like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Interest Rates.

I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month's Conference Call will be...

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This Is What The Monthly Charts Are Saying

September 1, 2017

The monthly charts aren't saying anything. Charts can't speak remember? It's up to us to take the behavior of the market and come up with our own interpretations of what is going on. There is no easy way to do this, just a lot of wrong ways. To help us continue to stay on the right side of the market, we always need to reevaluate the circumstances and come at it from all sorts of different angles. Usually we try and do that by incorporating International Indexes and Intermarket relationships into our process. Time, however, is probably the best tool we have in order to accomplish this. Using multiple timeframes throughout my process is the best way I know how to identify the direction of the primary trend. It's hard to miss it when you're consistently using Daily, Weekly and in this case, Monthly charts in your approach.

I have a lot of Monthly charts, as you can imagine. But the truth is that for this particular segment I try and focus on the message of the charts as a group. This exercise also really helps point out certain trends that you may have missed had you only gone back 5-10 years. These monthly candlesticks also tend to tell a story. So there are a lot of...

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[Premium] A Deep Dive Into Transportation Stocks

August 27, 2017

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has been one of the best leading indicators for the direction of markets over the past few years. This index peaked in late 2014, six months before the S&P500 put in its top. The Transportation Average also bottomed out in January 2016, the month before the S&P500 finally made its bottom. Moving forward, we want to continue to give this index the weighting it deserves.

With the recent underperformance out of this group, let's dive in and see what is going on underneath the surface. Is this the beginning of a major sell-off in Transports, which would lead the rest of the market lower? Or has this just been a correction within a strong uptrending market?

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[Premium] Should Stock Market Bulls Be Concerned About Credit Spreads?

August 17, 2017

The way I learned it was that the Bond Market is smarter than the Stock Market. I've heard theories that it's because the Bond Traders are smarter than stock jockeys. Maybe it's because the Bond market is a lot bigger than the Stock Market. Maybe it's all a bunch of nonsense. Who knows? The way I like to approach it is simply to use them both to my advantage equally. They both play a role in the process. When we see evidence of risk appetite in the stock market, we want to see the bond market confirming that and vice versa. It's when one is suggesting one thing and the other is signaling something else that we start to question what is really going on here.

Today we're going to focus on 3 specific spreads that we want to be watching closely here as the Summer comes to an end.

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[Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Monday August 21st at 7PM ET

August 15, 2017

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.

We've been bullish towards US and Global Stocks once again since May. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. I ran through all 1000 charts of the S&P500 stocks on both weekly and daily timeframes and there are more good ones than bad ones. A lot more good ones, in fact. It's hard for me to fight that.

I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month's Conference Call will be held on Monday August 21st at...