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Favorable Conditions For Canadian Investors

March 7, 2021

The Canadian economy is dominated by Financials and has a diverse and abundant exposure to natural resources. Despite the close proximity, the composition of the country's stock market couldn't be more different from that of the US.

They have a much higher relative exposure to areas like Financials, Energy, and Materials... Basically, all the things that are working.

On the other hand, they have significantly lower exposure to areas like Technology, Health Care, and Discretionary... Basically, all the areas that are NOT currently working.

Long story short, considering the current backdrop of global economic growth and reflation, rising rates and commodity prices, and rotation into cyclical areas and...

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Commodities Weekly (03-05-2021)

March 5, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

When reviewing our chartbook this week, one major theme that stood out is the relentless bid we continue to see in Crude Oil.

Most risk-on commodities have consolidated or pulled back recently as the dollar has rebounded back to its highest level in over three months.

But, not oil...

Crude has completely ignored this action from the US Dollar and tacked on an additional 12% gain since DXY bottomed about two weeks ago.

Ever since trading at negative prices last spring, Crude has been on an absolute tear.

Price just broke above its key prior highs and closed the week at its highest level since 2018. As long as Crude is above this key former resistance around 65 the bias is higher and we're targeting the 2018 highs just above 75 over the near-term.

If and when price takes this level out, we think Crude Oil heads back toward 100.

That's right. The next stop after 75 would be the 2011-2014 highs in the low...

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Fade The Street: March 2021 Edition

March 2, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

We've enjoyed a ton of success with our bottoms-up scans and the columns they've inspired over the past year.

We've already launched four columns around them since last summer, and we have more coming soon.

When we combine these scans with our traditional top-down approach, they make it almost impossible to miss profitable opportunities and key market themes.

Today, we're sharing one of our internal favorites with you. It's called "Fade The Street,"  and we introduced it in a report last month which you can read here.

It was a big hit and there's been a lot of change since then, so we thought a follow-up was appropriate.

Our Fade The Street scan leverages buy/sell ratings and price target data from sell-side analysts to identify strong stocks with significant potential tailwinds that can propel prices higher in the future.

How do we do this? Simple...

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The Minor Leaguers (03-01-2021)

March 1, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

In a further effort to identify individual equities that fit within our larger Macro thesis, we recently rolled out our latest bottoms-up scan: "The Minor Leaguers."

We write a post every other week where we outline some of our favorite setups from the watchlist.

We've already had some great trades from this universe and couldn't be happier about the early feedback.

Moving forward, we'll be rotating this column with "Under The Hood" each week.

In order to make it onto our Minor League list, you must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters.

Then, we simply sort the stocks by their percentage from new highs. Easy done.

And what better time than now to launch a small-cap focused column!? We've seen very strong evidence of a structural rotation down the market cap scale, suggesting a new period of outperformance from small-caps in the coming...

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Banking On This Group Of Global Stocks

March 1, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Over the last few months, there's been a distinct rotation into Financials and other cyclical areas across equity markets not just in the US, but across the globe.

This topic is nothing new around here as it's been a big theme for us recently. Consider some of our calls from this month:

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2 to 100 Club

2 to 100 Club (02-24-2021)

February 25, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, and Salesforce, to a myriad of others… all would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table you...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (02-22-2021)

February 23, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

Every major asset class on Earth continues to illustrate risk-taking behavior on the part of market participants.

Yields, Oil, Equities, Base Metals, the Australian Dollar -- there's an overwhelming amount of new highs in offensive areas of the market right now. The weight of the evidence continues to suggest that we want to be buyers, not sellers, of stocks.

The same bullish developments and themes that we've been pounding the table on for months continue to reinforce our stance. Some examples: the rotation into SMIDs, breadth...

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Broker-Dealers Break Out

February 22, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

In a recent post discussing cyclicals, we posed the following question:

Are Energy and Financial stocks about to lead the market?

Cyclical groups are catching all the right tailwinds in this environment.

Crude Oil and Yields are pressing to new 52-week highs as investors continue to favor more economically-sensitive stocks and commodities in general. This is a bullish development and supports higher prices for some of the most beaten-down risk assets... even Financials and Energy.

As participation has expanded, we've been vocal about looking for the winners in each group without a sector bias based on relative strength.

The reason for this is simple... In a market where everything seems to be trending higher on an absolute basis, we want to put less emphasis on looking for leadership groups and...

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Is Alt Season Upon Us?

February 19, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Are we finally entering the long-awaited alt-season?

We're seeing incredibly healthy rotation within the Cryptocurrency space, which we can only interpret as support for higher prices for this group of digital assets moving forward.

We've been bullish on Bitcoin $BTC and crypto since last summer when BTC was near 10,000.

Here's a post in October where JC outlined that the path of least resistance was higher in BTC, and another in December where we outlined a target, which was hit in a matter of days. Our current target for the Crypto leader is 70,000.

The price action is clear: Crypto continues to benefit from a well-established uptrend.

Our main focus today is the broadening participation of many Altcoins (lingo for any Cryptocurrency not named Bitcoin).

Several Altcoins are now breaking...

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (02-15-2021)

February 16, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We continue to harp on the risk-on themes that support our bullish macro thesis.

Rotation down the market-cap scale, commodity strength, and defensive alternatives making new relative lows have been some major themes we continue to see play out.

As participation continues to expand in both the US and abroad, we're being given more and more avenues to position ourselves in order to profit in the current environment.

While Tech and Growth still remain the secular leaders, even the perennial laggards such as...

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Is it Time for the Laggards to Shine?

February 16, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

If Bitcoin's run to $50,000 or the latest YOLO stocks aren't too distracting right now, you might have noticed Crude Oil just registered new 52-week highs for the first time since fall 2018.

Or maybe you're ahead of the curve and caught our post about the Energy Sector experiencing what looks like a bullish initiation thrust just a few weeks ago.

Or perhaps you saw Financials just closed the past week at fresh all-time highs... finally breaking out after almost 15-years of no progress!

On top of all this action, the US 10-Year Yield is also pressing on its highest level in almost a year.

It's clear that more cyclical stocks and economically sensitive Commodities are taking on leadership roles. We're in quite the risk-on environment.

Considering the evidence we just listed, it's finally time to address the elephant in the room...

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The Minor Leaguers (02-12-2021)

February 15, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

In a further effort to identify individual equities that fit within our larger Macro thesis, we recently rolled out our latest bottoms-up scan: "The Minor Leaguers."

We write a post every other week where we outline some of our favorite setups from the watchlist.

We've already had some great trades from this universe and couldn't be happier about the early feedback.

Moving forward, we'll be rotating this column with "Under The Hood" each week.

In order to make it onto our Minor League list, you must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters.

Then, we simply sort the stocks by their percentage from new highs. Easy done.

And what better time than now to launch a small-cap focused column!? We've seen very strong evidence of a structural rotation down the market cap scale, suggesting a new period of outperformance from small-caps in the coming...