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[Premium] The S&P 500's Cleanest Setups Right Now

March 4, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

If you're reading this it's probably because you've read our Table of the Week where we identified roughly 100 of the strongest stocks in the S&P 500. After digging into the charts of all these stocks, we came up with a handful of setups that we believe are currently offering the best reward/risk. Here they are, in no particular order.

[Table of The Week] Strongest Stocks In The S&P

March 4, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We want to be buying stocks that are in the strongest uptrends. One way we identify them is by looking at momentum which we use the 14-day RSI for. The strongest uptrends do not get oversold, or fall to RSI levels below 30. In fact, the strongest uptrends often stay above the 40-50 level and constantly print overbought readings above 70.

The S&P 500 registered an extreme oversold reading below 20 during the violent correction that began in late February. Here's a look.

Expect More Chop, But Be Prepared To Buy Stocks

March 4, 2020

In this post, we're going to recap our views from the last two months, discuss our current market view, and outline what conditions need to present themselves for us to be aggressively buying stocks.

First, let's recap our posts from the last few months that outlined why we were taking a more defensive approach towards stocks.

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Which Stocks Are We Buying?

March 3, 2020

Are you noticing the relative strength in Emerging Markets? That is NOT something we would expect to see if the world was actually coming to an end.

I can't stress this enough, stay away from the glorified gossip columns. They know less than nothing. You know who knows? The market. So that's where we'll get our data.

Think about it like this, there are more people and firms with more money and better intelligence than any of these governments, communist or otherwise. Are you actually going to trust the propaganda being put out in the "news"?

Or do you trust the people putting actual money behind the information they're spending a fortune to get? When we want to know what's really going on, we turn to the markets. The rest is pure junk.

For now, we're in an environment where we want to be buying stocks. We want to be incredibly disciplined with our risk levels, probably more than usual, but buying stocks nonetheless.

Our First Downside Objectives In Stocks Have Been Hit

March 3, 2020

We've been pointing to weakness in Indian equities, and equities around the globe, since mid-January. Last week the global leader, United States equities, joined the correction party and quickly met our downside targets.

We've since flipped long US stocks and are now playing for a bounce.

Patience has paid in Indian stocks, so here's a quick update on our view now that our first downside objectives have been hit in the major indices.

US Remains The Best House In The Neighborhood

February 27, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Thank you to everyone who responded to this week’s mystery chart.

We had mostly "do nothing" responses again this week but buyers or potential buyers came in close second, many of which said they were waiting for confirmation of the momentum divergence and failed breakdown before taking action.

We only had a few sellers, which is interesting because that's the camp we'd fall into as long as prices remain below support.

One of the main reasons for our bearish bias towards this chart is the fact that it's been in a long-term downtrend and consolidations tend to resolve themselves in the direction of the underlying trend.

Uptrends In Stocks Are Falling Apart

February 26, 2020

We've been very clear about how we wanted to avoid owning stocks this month. Fortunately, bonds have been the beneficiaries of the relentless selling in these stocks. Nothing has changed for the positive. But it's actually some former leaders completely falling apart that now has my attention.

Remember when Industrials broke out to new all-time highs? We said that as long as that was the case, how bad could things be? Well, Industrials are no longer above those former highs and actually just broke down to new 10-year relative lows. This is behavior consistent with an environment where we want to be selling stocks, not buying them: