This post is a quick update on a name in the Consumer Goods' space that we've been watching for a breakout, as well as two other names worth putting on your radar.
With our upside price objectives being met across in Equity markets across the globe, we've shifted our focus to buying Bonds and selling Emerging Market stocks with the expectation of a choppy environment for stocks as an asset class over the coming weeks and months.
With that said, just because the indexes may be choppy there will be winners and losers that we can take advantage of long and short.
Ok so if you're not caught up with our approach to the market right now, I encourage you to read both "We're Buying Bonds" and "Selling Emerging Markets" from this weekend.
Today I want to talk about the non-randomness of markets. I think the Russell2000 Small-cap Index is a great example to walk through. For one, it helps you understand the way we look at markets, but selfishly it's also great because it reiterates a lot of principles that I want to continue to focus on moving forward. Writing helps. Everyone wins.
I tried to outline the levels as best as I could. Let me know if you have any questions!
Quickly today, I just wanted to point out one chart of Emerging Markets that really stands out. Remember this Index is broken down as follows: China 32.40%, South Korea 11.84%, Taiwan 11.71%, India 8.13%, Brazil 6.78%, South Africa 4.25% & Russia 3.84%.
We've had a heck of a run in stocks since the summer, and now I think it's time for a break, at least at the index level. Remember, regardless of overall market conditions there will still always be some stocks going up and some going down. In fact, I think Utilities see some outperformance here and I listed which stocks we want to own. So far they're working.
Anyway, so why the new defensive position? Well, the things we said needed to happen for us to pull back are starting to happen. It's really as simple as that.
We've gotten a few questions about the stock, Spencer's Retail Ltd., since it rallied more than 50% over the last few weeks on news of a large shareholder building a position.
The question now is, can this run continue and how do we define our risk if involved in the stock?
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about the newest Sector in America: Communications. Back in 2018, the Index makers took out some of our favorite Technology stocks and put them along with some telecom into this new Index called Communications. With Google and Facebook now representing 40% of this $XLC index, the fact that we're just now breaking out to all-time highs says a lot about the space.
This long weekend we had more time to take a step back and think about the things that are currently going on in the market. A big theme that stuck with us was the strength in stocks in the Utilities sector. The question was/is whether this strength in higher dividend paying stocks is evidence that rates are about to fall? Or is there such an overwhelming amount of strength in the stock market, that Utilities are just included in the rally?
But sometimes I think we just need to pay attention to what's right in front of us, which in this case is Utilities stocks going higher. So why don't we just buy utility stocks and not worry about the bond market for a hot minute? The most bullish thing a stock can do is go up. And that's exactly what's happening here.