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The BRICKS Are Breaking Out

December 17, 2019

When we talk about Equities, we need to think about them holistically as an asset class as opposed to simply focusing on the individual stock or sector or index we're looking at.

The Rotation Back Into Amazon Has Begun

December 17, 2019

How quickly people forget what a beast Amazon has been for years. All it took was an 18-month consolidation for investors to fall out of love with one of the greatest stocks in American history.

The bet the bears are making is that Amazon has been lagging and dragging down the Consumer Discretionary sector, considering it's 22% weighting in the index $XLY. So if you believe this is a big market top, I understand why you would think Discretionaries are setting up for a big fall. I totally get that.

Here's the chart:

The Beginning of a New Bull Market In Stocks

December 15, 2019

People don't like it when I tell them we're near the beginning of a new bull market in stocks. For some reason, they prefer that cozy feeling of going to bed thinking stocks are near an important high, and they've somehow outsmarted the system by selling stocks in uptrends instead of buying them.

I'm convinced some of these people must be looking at their charts upside down.

Anyway, let's take a look at the markets so I can show you why I think we're closer to the beginning of a new bull market and not near the end of an old one:

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[Chart of The Week] Key Level In The Mobile Payments ETF

December 13, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Mobile Payment stocks have been a key part of our focus on the Technology theme taking place across various sectors of the market.

Since the summer the space has cooled off a bit but is back at levels where it would make sense for the trend to reaccelerate to the upside.

Here's the Mobile Payments ETF vs S&P 500 ratio (IPAY/SPY) pulling back to trendline support. This looks like a normal pullback within a long-term uptrend, however, our concern is that momentum got oversold for the first time since mid-2016.

The strongest uptrends do not get oversold, but unfortunately, this one has so we need to watch if prices bounce from this level and resume their uptrend (preferably getting overbought once again) or if they roll over through support and make fresh lows.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

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Have You Seen What Base Metals Are Doing?

December 12, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Copper has been getting a lot of attention as it hits 5-month highs, but there is another Base Metal chart that's not being talked about.

Today we're looking at that chart and then taking a more comprehensive approach at what's going on in the space.

Here's Copper making 5-month highs as momentum attempts to get overbought. The record net long position held by commercial hedgers continues, suggesting they think Copper prices can still head higher despite a more than 10% rally from the July failed breakdown.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Stronger Copper is a good thing for Emerging Markets and reflects market participants pricing in stronger economic growth conditions.

Vedanta Signaling Nifty Metal Index Weakness Ahead?

December 10, 2019

Last week we discussed the potential near-term "oops" in India's major indices and those conditions remain very much intact.

With that being said, today's focus is on one sector and its largest component, both of which look vulnerable to further downside.

Let's take a look.

One of the tools we use for Indian stocks due to how top-heavy the market is are chart overlays of a sector/index's largest component and the underlying sector/index. The largest component in most cases can represent a major portion of an index and act as either a helium balloon or lead balloon, pulling the index up or down on a whim. When their performance diverges, that's when we want to pay attention.

Over the last few months, we've seen a divergence in the performance of Vedanta Ltd. which represents 19% of the Nifty Metal Index. Vedanta is making lower highs as the sector makes higher highs, suggesting that potential weakness could be ahead the group as a whole.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Dow Theory Is NOT Just Industrials & Transports

December 6, 2019

In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the less talked about tenets of Dow Theory. Everyone always likes to talk about the Dow Jones Industrial Average either confirming or diverging from the Dow Jones Transportation Average. But what gets forgotten is that there are many more tenets like Closing Prices are the most important, Identifying the direction of the Primary Trends and The Market Discounting Everything. Check out JC's 5 Most Important Dow Theory Tenets

This day and age we have other areas just as important, or even more important, than a group of Railroads, like what Charlie had when he first wrote down his Tenets in the late 1800s. Today we also compare the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the Semiconductor and Homebuilders Indexes as well as incorporate a series of ratios with Consumer Staples and Financials. It's more of an "and" than an "or" for us when it comes to Dow Theory.

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Healthcare Breaks Out! Here's What We're Buying

December 6, 2019

Healthcare is the latest of the American Sectors to break out to new all-time highs. I think Financials are next, but for today's conversation, let's focus on the task at hand: Healthcare is a space we want to own.

First of all, here is that breakout. It rarely gets cleaner than this:

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Another 35% of upside in this sector would be consistent with historical moves in the past and would be perfectly normal, as far as I'm concerned.

The bigger question, really, is which industry group is going to be the main driver?

The obvious choice appears to be Medical Devices. When all these stocks and sectors were churning sideways since early 2018, the relative strength was already here. You can't deny that. Look at this beauty:

What If Financials Breakout To All-time Highs As Well?

December 5, 2019

Did you notice that the U.S. Financials Sector Index is just 3.5% away from its infamous all-time highs in 2007 before the financial crisis?

That's right, $XLF is approaching this level once again, for the 3rd time in almost 13 years. Is this finally going to be it? Are we really going to start a new bull market in Financials?

I think yes and I'm going to tell you why.

First here is the chart I'm referring to and its 3rd attempt to get through this level: