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15 years in the making…

April 13, 2025

I have some personal news to share with you.

This announcement is 15 years in the making. And I’m grateful to all of you that I’m able to make it. 

Ladies and gentlemen, 2024 was my last year as Chief Market Strategist at All Star Charts Research.

Many of you were with me when I started writing a blog from my apartment in New York City in 2010. I was 28 years old then – just a kid trying to figure it out.

You were with me too when we turned the blog into a research company. We’ve added some of the top technicians in the game today to our team.

And All Star Charts is now one of the greatest technical analysis research companies in the history of the stock market.

I’m really proud of what we’ve built together. The team that I’ve assembled has helped me make decisions about what I do with my money for many years.

So I’m equally proud to share that Steve Strazza – my right-hand man and the Director of Research for the last five years – was named Chief Market Strategist at Allstarcharts earlier this year.

Steve has played an instrumental role in our success at All Star Charts. No single person on Earth is more qualified to take...

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Bond Report: When the Plumbing Breaks, What Swap Spreads Are Telling Us

April 13, 2025

One of the most reliable signals of market stress isn’t in the headlines—it’s in swap spreads.

Swap spreads measure the difference between what banks pay to swap interest rates (SOFR) and what the U.S. government pays to borrow (Treasuries). When that spread collapses, like it just did, something’s breaking.

  • In 2008, swap spreads collapsed before Lehman.
  • In March 2020, they broke again when the Treasury market froze.

Both times, the Fed stepped in.

This week, the 30-year swap spread hit a record low last week. Translation? Dealers are under pressure. Liquidity is vanishing.

 

Chart from Kevin Muir from The Macro Tourist

Here’s the real story:

Pension funds use swaps to hedge rates while keeping cash free for private investments. Banks hedge those swaps by buying Treasuries—but capital requirements limit how...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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(Commodities Weekly) This Juice is Worth The Squeeze 🍊

April 11, 2025

Amid historic market volatility, we're looking for uncorrelated trades.

Whether that's Crude Oil, Lumber, or Orange Juice.

Trading commodities doesn't just offer lucrative risk versus reward opportunities, but it also has a very low correlation to other asset classes.

For example, Orange Juice was in a steady uptrend from 2020 until the end of 2024. 

It didn't care about the bear market in 2022. 

And it certainly doesn't care about the bear market in 2025.

This was the best week for the juice since 1998, and we think it has the potential to rally more for the foreseeable future.

This is why we talk about polarity so much 👇...
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International Hall of Famers (04-11-2025)

April 11, 2025

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...
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No Tweeting on Vacation

April 10, 2025

I'll be back from a nice family vacation later today and will be LIVE on The Morning Show Friday morning.

Miami is fantastic this time of year. I highly recommend a good vacation, if that's something that you can afford to do.

There was a time in my life that I couldn't afford this kind of thing, so it makes me appreciate it so much more. Many of you already understand this. Some of you will one day.

I wanted to check in and share a few things I've been thinking about while I've been away this week.

One thing that certainly stands out is just how great it is to stay off twitter while you're way with your family.

If you want to make sure you're a bad father, one way to solidify that is to spend all your time tweeting during family vacations. 

I kid. But this is definitely a luxury that I couldn't understand in my younger days. 

There is an incredible team at...

2 to 100 Club,
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2 to 100 Club (04-09-2025)

April 9, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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Historic Polarity At Play

April 8, 2025

It's been a great week down in Miami visiting family.

We had our first child in the middle of covid, and then had twins 2 years ago. So traveling hasn't exactly been at the top of the priority list, like it used to be for us before kids.

In fact, this is actually the first time I've come back home to Miami with my entire family, including all 3 kids. 

It's been awesome.

Sunday night I got to sneak out after the kids went to bed and met Steve Strazza for sushi at a new spot on Brickell.

I've also hung out with old high school buddies and cousins. I don't get to do these things as much as I used to back in the day.

This morning I wanted to pass along two charts that I think all investors need to keep front and center right now. 

These charts, in my opinion, literally define this bull market, and whether or not it's over, like we all keep being told it is.

We call this behavior: "Polarity".

It's when former resistance turns into support. In other words, where there were more sellers than buyers (at the prior cycle's peak), there are now (so far) more buyers that sellers.

You're seeing this polarity play out in...

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The Minor Leaguers (04-07-2025)

April 7, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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[Gold Rush] More Outperformance From Shiny Rocks 📈⚒️

April 7, 2025

The publicly traded markets around the world are experiencing some of their most volatile periods ever.

Since its February peak, the S&P 500 has declined by over 20%. 

Meanwhile, Gold has shown a tremendous amount of relative strength. It's only down 6% from its all-time high...

This isn't anything new, though. We've been discussing this outperformance for years, and we don't think it will change anytime soon.

Gold has resolved a nearly 50-year basing pattern versus the median stock 📈
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Bonds could push to new 52-week highs if tariff headlines keep rolling in

April 7, 2025

Why? Because tariffs create immediate uncertainty. They slow growth, tighten financial conditions, and drive a flight to safety — all of which are bond bullish in the short term. We’ve seen this playbook before: geopolitical tension or trade stress leads to a bid for duration.

The chart’s not there yet — but it’s starting to shape up. Bonds still have work to do before we can talk new 52-week highs. For $TLT, that means clearing this massive base and getting above 100.40 with some momentum behind it. That’s the line in the sand. Get through that, and the squeeze could start to build.

 

But here’s the catch — the long-term impact is different.

Tariffs raise input costs. They squeeze supply chains. And they don’t reduce demand — they just make things more expensive. Over time, that feeds into inflation. So while bonds may catch a near-term bid on fears of economic slowdown, the structural risk is higher inflation down the road.

It’s the classic setup: short-term deflationary shock, long-term inflationary shift.

So yes — bonds could break out. But if this pressure...

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NYSE % Stocks > 200 Day Moving Average

April 6, 2025

I wanted to go back old school today.

I'm in Miami this week, where I grew up, visiting family and I'm feeling nostalgic. 

So I wanted to share a chart that I've kept with me for a long long time. I even used the same Stockcharts.com chart, that I originally annotated a handful of cycles ago, so you can see just how long I've had this one with me.

We're looking at the percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are above their 200 day moving average.

 

The idea here is that we are NOT interested in buying the indexes on their way down below 20% of constituents above their 200 day.

The goal during these times is to buy them on the way back up

I've been having this debate with some of the world's top portfolio managers and strategists for over the past 2 decades.

Some of these arguments have even gotten pretty heated throughout these cycles. I remember one private back and forth during the late 2018 period where the strategist was pounding the table about the 20% level, while I was much more focused on the 15% mark.

Here's the answer. Or at least, here's my answer:

The best...