Yesterday, we identified a number of developments in crypto and in old-school markets, suggesting it's time for buyers to step in if further damage is to be avoided.
While Bitcoin is in the process of testing support, we've seen some short-term signals of strength within the altcoins. This is a positive, but crypto assets need legacy markets to bounce here if this recent strength is to persist.
If equities can’t begin to build a bullish shape right here and now, we expect further downside. Recent US dollar strength likely needs to subside, too.
So, with our stage set, let's look at it through a more actionable lens.
What are the setups? What are we buying? What are we selling?
The most significant insider activity on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by Juan Delgado-Moreira, vice-chairman of Hamilton Lane Incorporated $HLNE.
Delgado-Moreira reported a purchase worth roughly $1 million.
This market hasn't thrown us much in the way of productive data points in recent months.
"Messier for longer" has been and continues to be our prognosis for crypto right now. Last Monday, we concluded by arguing the following:
Following Bitcoin’s sell-off, this seems like a logical place for the crypto complex to bounce or at least chop for a few weeks, especially given stretched sentiment in the futures markets.
Because the probabilities of short-term longs are rather low given the macro backdrop, we’re not going to get overly cute and tactical trying to define a setup at this support.
The higher-probability outcome appears to be further chop.
In other words, it’s just more of the same.
There haven't been any significant developments that'd sway us to carry a more bullish tone.
Bitcoin and the vast majority of the asset class are still chopping about, while macro markets have been dragged down in the most recent risk-off move within the context of a strong dollar.
But over very short time frames, there have been some signs of internal strength in the alts. This...
The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.
The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.
Remember when the stock market peaked in February 2021?
That's when the New highs list peaked. That's when the Nasdaq Advance-Decline line peaked. That's when Chinese Internet Peaked. That's when Biotech peaked. That's when all the ARKK funds peaked.
February 2021 is when everyone had a SPAC.
Remember SPACs?
This group of "Special Purpose Acquisition Companies" was a poster-child for the excess environment of Q1 2021.
These SPACs were the biggest pieces of hot garbage on the market. And everyone wanted them.
And then the market peaked and their prices came tumbling down.
Now here we are, 18-months later. And they've just decided to delist the SPAC ETF $SPAK.
We’ve been loud about energy lately. And how can we not be?
Energy stocks were the most resilient during the H1 selloff and are by far the best-performing sector off the 2020 lows. Every afternoon, energy quietly leads the pack into the close, whether the market is green or red on the day.
But the recent rally in stocks has started to fizzle. And even energy is beginning to feel the downside pressure.
While everyone scrambles to label the recent rally, gearing up for the next leg higher, or preparing for the world's end, we want to focus on the leaders – energy!
If this leadership group starts to fall, it could be an early warning sign of broad selling on the horizon.
And, with Labor Day upon us, it just so happens the energy sector ETF $XLE is retesting a critical shelf of former highs.
Here’s a chart of XLE:
Like many cyclical areas of the market, XLE reclaimed its prior-cycle highs during the...
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more -- but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
Today, it looked like the market wanted to continue yesterday afternoon's powerful late rally.
Well, it was not to be, as stocks have broadly declined since lunchtime and indices are in the red as I type this.
For me, this offers yet another opportunity to sell some delta-neutral options premium to continue providing some ballast to the directional bets in my portfolio.