We're back with another commodity post in the Commodity Check series. Today we're highlighting a commodity that had quite a meteoric rise since November 2021. In February this year, we saw the price consolidate sideways. But guess what? We have a breakout!
Let me give you another hint. It's another Agri commodity.
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that, which you can check out here.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Here’s this week’s list:
And here’s how we arrived at it:
We filtered out any stocks that are below their May 10, 2021, high, which is when new 52-week highs peaked...
The Fed was all over the news this week, going out of its way to telegraph to the market its intention to pursue an accelerated pace of rate hikes. Fed funds futures seem to be getting the message. A month ago, futures were priced for year-end fed funds rate of 1.50 - 1.75%. That is now up to between 2.50% - 3.00%. In past accelerated tightening cycles, both stocks and commodities were strong into the initial rate hike. Their paths, however, soon diverged. Commodities remained strong and on average didn’t peak until a year and a half after rate hikes began. Stocks have tended to struggle during these tightening cycles, working sideways to lower for an extended period of time. Every cycle has its own unique characteristics, but if history is any guide it makes sense to favor commodities over stocks when the Fed is rapidly tightening monetary policy.
This week I joined Tyler Wood and David Lundgren on Fill The Gap, the official podcast of the CMT Association.
Being asked to come on to this one was a real honor for me.
Since day 1 I've been a huge fan of the Association and the members who came before me. I can tell you honestly that I don't know where I would be today if it wasn't for the CMT Association and more importantly, the community of members all over the world.
It truly has been one of the best experiences of my entire life and for that I will forever be grateful.
In this conversation talk about how I became a Technician, the first books I started reading, who my mentors were, starting a business, becoming a Wine Sommelier and the new technical tools and strategies that technicians are now able to incorporate into Crypto and other digital assets.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Benchmark yields have moved in a vertical line higher since the beginning of March. This isn't just the case in the US; we're seeing similar action all across the globe.
But as rates rally higher and higher, more and more classic intermarket relationships are failing to confirm the move.
Yes, commodities and commodity-related stocks remain resilient, and bonds are an absolute dumpster fire.
Most other assets we would expect to do well in a rising rate environment simply aren’t. This is especially true for the banks!
Meanwhile, those groups that we'd expect to underperform in this kind of environment, such as utilities and other defensive stocks, are actually outperforming.
All of this speaks to risk-aversion, not risk-seeking behavior.
Let’s take a look at some of our favorite intermarket ratios and put these bearish divergences into perspective....