From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

With our latest Weight of the Evidence Dashboard improving and now signaling a neutral stance, we have put cash to work across our portfolios to reflect a more balanced approach.

During today's internal Analyst Call, JC asked me what I was looking at for a trade today.

I mentioned I hadn't fully fleshed it out yet, but whatever I did would likely involve selling premium. With the $VIX hovering around 24 at the time, it felt like the edge was on the side of the premium sellers.

At this point, Steve Strazza piped in that he liked Freeport McMoran $FCX as a likely candidate for a bounce here. And then JC got excited about the idea of a bullish Risk Reversal spread to express this idea.

Selling elevated puts premium to offset the cost of a long call position? Yes... I liked the sound of that.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: The risks associated with excessive optimism are no longer present as bulls are in full retreat. Recent spikes in volatility and downside pressure on price have ushered in an atmosphere of caution.Though we haven’t reached levels of fear or pessimism indicative of a complete unwind, active equity managers reducing their exposure to 55% and the II bull-bear spread at its lowest level since May 2020 speaks to a healthy reset. Relentless equity ETF inflows, elevated valuations, and slowing earnings growth all point to increased risks over longer timeframes. However, we are seeing early signs of opportunity re-entering the market from a tactical and cyclical perspective.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Fade the flows

Equity ETF inflows continued in September (16 months in a row) while commodities remain an unloved asset class from an ETF flow perspective. The equity space certainly looks crowded from a longer-term perspective. Weekly data...

On this episode of the podcast, Steve Strazza and I sit down with Brian G, who many of you will recognize as @AlphaCharts on Twitter.

I've been following Brian for many years and love a lot of the work he puts out. It was really fun hearing his story about how he became a technician.

It isn't something that happens overnight, that's for sure. It's a process.

First we get into the evolution of become a Technical Analyst, and then we dive into what we're doing about it in the current environment.

Hope you enjoy!

In markets, there are certain groups we want to completely avoid.

Permabears, gold bugs, and the "doom and gloomers" are great examples of what not to be.

These are people who project their political and philosophical views onto the market rather than using the market as a way to make money.

When we're dealing with cryptocurrencies, deciding who we listen to is incredibly important. Cults like the laser eye people, religious followings of altcoins, and of course, the dreaded Bitcoin maxi are all in the business of fueling their internal confirmation biases.

For those unfamiliar with the nomenclature, Bitcoin maximalists believe that Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that matters, while everything else is worthless. Similar to the gold and silver crowd, these people will only buy Bitcoin and nothing else.

I find it hilarious that Maxi's will criticize those in traditional markets for missing out on alpha, but they won't buy a single altcoin, which is ironic because Bitcoin's share of the asset class has dwindled lower and lower over the years.

The alpha within crypto has been down the cap scale in smart contracts, defi,...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

We held our October Monthly Strategy Session last night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month. 

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The US dollar marches to the beat of its own drum.

Interest rates are rising across the curve, sparking strength out of economically sensitive areas within stocks and commodities.

Crude oil and the energy-heavy CRB Index are breaking to new six-year highs and the energy sector SPDR is testing a crucial area of former support turned resistance -- all while the US Dollar Index is catching a bid. 

It’s not every day we see the dollar and commodities rally in tandem.

This environment suggests the dollar should be rolling over or chopping sideways at best. Yet it continues to show strength!

When markets don’t do "what they should,” that’s valuable information. And in this case, it raises some important questions.

How often does the historically inverse correlation between the dollar...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

My favorite Head & Shoulders Patterns are the ones that aren't that at all.

Markets trend. We know that for a fact. That's why Technical Analysis works. Because as Technicians, we're identifying primary trends.

And since we know that market returns do not fall under a normal distribution, and in fact, prices actually trend, it gives us a huge advantage over those who purposely choose to ignore price.

Funny how people like to ignore the only thing that actually pays anybody.

I always thought that was so strange.

Anyway, in today's example of "Not a Head & Shoulders Top", we take a look at Copper Prices. If you have any exposure whatsoever in the market, stocks, bonds or otherwise, then this is a resolution that will interest you and most certainly impact the value of your portfolio.

Before you put on your first trade or buy any asset, there's one question every investor needs to ask themselves:

What's my objective?

For most investors, the answer is pretty simple. It comes down to maximizing returns and minimizing losses in a way that fits within each individual's unique preferences.

Despite this, you'd be surprised with the number of people who use the market as an outlet to express their political views rather than as a way to make money.

We're raising this today as a reminder to stay objective and always follow the money flow, rather than the opinion of journalists or analysts.

One field that crypto investors are particularly susceptible to these biases is within the decentralized finance sector.

DeFi is the darling of the crypto world.

If you bring up crypto to anyone in the financial realm, DeFi is front and center in the discussion. Knowing all the flaws and inefficiencies of the traditional industry, it could certainly help pave the way for a new financial system. I encourage you to go...

This is the video recording of our October 4, 2021 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session