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[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

September 10, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Despite government officials trying to explain it away, inflation is running at its highest levels in years or (in the case of producer prices) decades. For now, however, the bond market shows little evidence of concern. After pulling back from 1.75% to 1.15%, the yield on the 10-year T-Note has risen in recent weeks but remains below 1.40%. It has bumped up against that level but has not been able to get through it. German yields have moved higher recently and seem to be giving US yields a green light to break out. Resiliency from Financials even as yields were retreating in Q2 and Q3 also argue for an upside resolution here. The high P/E, speculative growth sectors of the market ran out of steam when yields moved higher earlier this year and they could be vulnerable again if yields make a sustained move to the upside from here.

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[Options Premium] Exchange Value

September 10, 2021

The big indexes offered us a little pullback this week which has been helping us identify the true standouts -- the stocks that are holding up best in a down tape. We're all about relative strength at All Star Charts as it is one of the most reliable indicators for us. And true leaders really identify themselves when they are swimming against the current while markets are sliding.

So on days and weeks like this, we're paying very close attention to the strongest sectors and keying in on the strongest stocks to see how they react.

Today, one those names is in the Capital Markets space where we're seen tremendous strength this year.

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Is It Time To Buy Small-Cap Tech?

September 10, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Thanks to everyone who participated in last week’s Mystery Chart.

We questioned whether this consolidation would resolve in the direction of the primary downtrend--in which case we would expect a break lower.

Or maybe buyers would step in and defend those former lows once again.

Despite the lack of bearish momentum readings, many of you wanted to sell on a break below support, citing the primary trend as a major deciding factor.

And that's basically where our heads were, too, as it's always easier to go with the trend.

So what are we selling? Or should I say... buying?

The chart was the Small-Cap Technology ETF $PSCT… but it was inverted!

So those who wanted to sell on a breakdown were actually buyers, and vice versa.

Here’s a fresh look at the chart, right side up this time:

...

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Defensive Stocks Stop Going Down

September 10, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridg

Money really likes to flow where it's treated the best… and as far as sectors and even most industry groups go, there simply isn't much alpha out there at the moment.

In analyzing relative trends, we’re always aware of how the overall stock market is performing against defensive assets. 

In today’s post, we’re going to check in on those sectors investors pile into when seeking safety as opposed to positioning for risk.

Utilities, Real Estate, and Staples... the “bond proxy” groups. Let's dive in.

Here's a custom index of them all charted relative to the broader market.

Notice how the relationship has stopped trending lower since it bottomed back in July.

While many of these defensive groups had been in freefall versus the S&P, as JC discussed in this month's conference call, it’s interesting to see them trying to build out...

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Young Aristocrats (September 2021)

September 9, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are “stocks that pay you to make money.” Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum & relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our...

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Beginnings and Ends

September 9, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Labor Day weekend in Wisconsin usually means one last summer trip up north for one last summer swim in the lake.

For me, this also meant the final jump off the giant raft we built (a ton of steel sitting on 12 barrels, with multiple jumping platforms and a slide that ends six feet above the water). Then, it was time to bring it back to shore to disassemble it for winter storage.  

Driving south toward Milwaukee at the end of the long weekend, I saw all sorts of summer toys being towed home for the winter. While it was not quite as warm as in August and the sunset came a bit sooner than it did in July, it was still a lovely evening and a chance to look back and also look ahead.

September Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways

September 9, 2021

Our live Monthly Strategy Session concluded last night. For all the premium subscribers, this is where you can access/rewatch the video.

This post is an exercise we do for the non-members to give them an idea of the research we carry out at All Star Charts.

The Monthly Strategy Calls started out as a selfish endeavour whereby we wanted to stay in the loop and follow the big-picture trends. It's like recentering your navigation system to avoid taking the wrong turn. Then we realised this could be helpful to you guys as well! Just to step back and identify the larger trend.

Reminders From Crypto's Crash

September 9, 2021

Watching some of these cryptos, you wouldn't even know Bitcoin just got a 15% haircut after $4B worth of positions were steamrolled.

Take a look at Solana...

We thought that this extension target, particularly in the face of the recent action, would act as a logical level to consolidate these gains. But, buyers have continued their charge.

When the market completely ignores these extensions, that's information...

The Outperformers

September 9, 2021

We debuted a new scan recently- The Outperformers.

The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.

The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.