From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Ian Culley @ianculley
In last week’s Commodity Report we highlighted the Uranium ETF $URA and promised to dig up some trade ideas within this outperforming group of stocks.
While everyone was enjoying the Labor Day weekend, barbecuing, and watching football - we were pouring over our Uranium universe to uncover the best risk/reward opportunities in the strongest names.
But hey, this is what we love to do!
So let’s dive right in and see what we found.
First of all, why do we like Uranium so much right now?
Both the Uranium ETF and the underlying commodity are showing leadership and breaking out of 6-year bases. That's more than good enough for us.
Now, let's look at some of the strongest stocks that we can use as vehicles to express our bullish thesis.
In any given market there is never a time when all constituents move up together and vice versa. There is always an internal substitution at play. It is this game of musical chairs that helps us identify the sectors/sections that are exhibiting outperformance.
Once we are aware of the outperforming nature of certain ticker symbols, it becomes easier to select our avenues of investment.
Keeping that in mind, we are here to discuss two representatives from the commodity universe that are displaying strength.
This week we’re looking at a long setup in the Energy sector. It's a big name and there has been a breakout in the making for quite some time now. You've probably guessed it by now.
Let's take a look at the trade idea this time around.
Welcome back to our latest "Under The Hood" column where we'll cover all the action for the week ended September 3, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated on-and-off with our "Minor Leaguers" column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Macro Universe:
Our macro universe performance was positive across the board again this week, as 77% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.65%.
The biggest winner of the week was Lumber $LB, which gained 12.78% as it continues to rebound off a key level of support.
Meanwhile, the week's worst performer was the Treasury Inflation-Protected Bond ETF $TIP, which fell by -1.05%.
We saw strength among US Large-Cap indices again...
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
It’s Bear Hunting Season
In our monthly candlestick review, the primary theme was the long list of all-time highs. That’s never bearish. But when we looked toward the weaker areas, despite lagging behind, they’re all holding critical levels of support. When the bears can’t drag down even the worst areas, that’s information. Precious metals, energy, or in this case, airlines whipsawed below support, only for bulls to come out and reclaim control.
As illustrated here, we got about as strong of follow-through as the bulls could have wished for. Again, the fact that so many of the weakest areas just won’t break down is incredibly constructive. If bears can’t even take out airline stocks, how can they ever grab a hold of the broader market? You have to start somewhere, and right now they’re moving backward.
While it’s still too soon to draw this conclusion with enough conviction, we think that these whipsaw moves could very...
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
We questioned whether it was a rounding top reversal pattern – in which case we’d be looking for a breakdown.
Or, if it was actually a failed breakdown - and we all know what tends to follow those patterns…
The responses we received were mixed. But there were plenty of bulls who wanted to be long against the former lows and bet on a swift reaction higher.
That’s pretty much the camp we were in too. We recently wrote about all of the whipsaw action we’ve been witnessing.
We said the next critical piece of information we’d be looking for was whether or not these patterns would see some real follow-through and confirmation.
Fast forward a week or so, and we definitely have our answer.
So let’s talk about it, and more importantly, what it means for risk assets.